Bitcoin All-Time High Ahead: Historical Pattern Signals 50% Chance Of Reaching $100K By August

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16 Feb 2024

imageBitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has surged to a 26-month high, reaching $52,000 and reigniting predictions of surpassing its previous all-time high (ATH) of $69,000.
The market has experienced a resurgence of bullish sentiments, fueled further by the recent adoption of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These have spurred notable growth within just one month of approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bitcoin Poised For A Major Breakout?

Investment manager and market expert Timothy Peterson, who recently made a bold claim on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), reinforces Bitcoin’s renewed optimism.
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Peterson stated that Bitcoin had achieved an almost exact 100% gain in 180 days, a feat that has occurred 41 times since 2015. In 78% of these instances, Bitcoin reached even higher price levels.
Furthermore, Peterson’s analysis of historical data suggests that the average return for the next 180 days after such a gain was also approximately 100%.Based on this historical pattern, Peterson asserts that there is a 50% chance Bitcoin will reach the significant milestone of $100,000 by August.

However, despite this possibility, as the halving event approaches, there could be another correction that, while not putting the bull run in jeopardy, could trigger significant liquidation rates as the hype surrounding the current uptrend mounts.
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Pre-Halving Correction Looms

The upcoming halving event scheduled for April, combined with historical patterns, suggests that Bitcoin may experience one final correction before the bull run resumes, presenting a crucial moment for investors.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital emphasizes the significance of a pre-halving retrace, noting that historically, it tends to occur only a few weeks before the actual halving event.
Looking back at previous halvings, such retracements have ranged from -38% in 2016 to -20% in 2020. Based on these patterns, a retracement of around 27% is possible in the current market scenario.

BTC’s market structure patterns as Halving nears. Source: Rekt Capital on X
If a retracement of this magnitude were to occur, it would place the Bitcoin price at approximately $37,900, as indicated in Rekt Capital’s pre-halving retrace chart. This level represents an important threshold for investors to accumulate the cryptocurrency before the next phase of the halving event and the anticipated bull run rally.

Key Resistance For BTC’s Trajectory

Bitcoin’s continued rise has brought its price to a critical juncture, with the current trading level of $52,100 catching the attention of the founders of blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode.
According to their analysis, historical data reveals that the $52,000 level has acted as a formidable resistance point on the weekly chart, making it a crucial threshold for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The platform’s founders suggest that a successful breach of this level could trigger a surge of buying pressure, potentially leading to a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) scenario among investors.