Transformation of the far-right in France

TLDR
French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call for new parliamentary elections in response to the far-right's strong performance in the EU elections has sent shockwaves through the nation. The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, has grown significantly in influence, positioning itself as a major opposition force. Macron's move aims to address this rising threat but also risks weakening France's international standing if the far-right wins. The political landscape in France has shifted dramatically, with traditional left-right divisions giving way to a more complex dynamic involving new political alliances and the normalization of far-right politics.

Fanny Härgestam's analysis of the current political situation in France paints a picture of significant upheaval and transformation. The catalyst for this shift is the startling success of the far-right National Rally (NR) in the European Parliament elections on June 9th, which led President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new parliamentary elections. This bold move, described as handling one earthquake by causing another, has left the nation in shock and uncertainty.

Macron, who addressed the nation in an unprecedented televised speech on election night, emphasized that he was responding to the electorate's clear message. By calling for elections on June 30th and July 7th, Macron seeks to allow the French people to determine their parliamentary future. This decision underscores the gravity of the situation, as it follows a historic showing by the NR, which secured over 30% of the vote, highlighting the party's growing influence and the challenges Macron faces.

Under Marine Le Pen's leadership, the rise of the National Rally represents a dramatic shift in the French political landscape. Originally founded as a coalition of violent far-right groups in the early 1970s, the NR has evolved into the largest opposition party in France. Le Pen's strategy has been to rebrand and professionalize the party, distancing it from its extremist roots and making it more palatable to a broader electorate. This includes recruiting articulate spokespeople, excluding her controversial father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, and focusing on governance at the local level to demonstrate the party's capability to rule.

One of Le Pen's significant achievements has been toning down the party's rhetoric and expanding its agenda beyond immigration to include economic issues, such as the purchasing power of French citizens. This strategic shift has helped the NR attract a more diverse voter base, including traditional left and right-wing supporters, by addressing widespread concerns about security, immigration, and national identity. These issues are central to the French political discourse and resonate deeply with voters who feel neglected by the current government and are disillusioned with the state of public services and social mobility.
Macron's presidency, marked by several unpopular reforms, such as raising the retirement age from 62 to 64, has also contributed to the current political tension. These reforms pushed through despite public outcry and violent protests, have tarnished Macron's image and led to accusations of elitism and detachment from the everyday struggles of French citizens. His leadership style, often perceived as authoritarian, has only fueled these sentiments.

Macron's strategy hinges on presenting himself as the best defense against the far right as the parliamentary elections approach. However, this tactic faces increasing skepticism, given the NR's continued growth and the emergence of new political threats, such as the hastily formed left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP). Macron's appeal to voters as a centrist alternative to the extremes of both the left and the right is being tested as his party, Renaissance, struggles to maintain its footing.

The potential outcome of these elections could herald a historic shift in French politics. If the NR emerges as the leading force, France could witness a cohabitation government where the president and prime minister hail from different political camps. This scenario would complicate France's international stance, particularly on contentious issues like support for Ukraine. Macron's recent foreign policy maneuvers, including discussions about deploying troops and providing military support to Ukraine, starkly contrast with the NR's more isolationist stance.

Härgestam's analysis highlights Macron's precarious position and broader implications for France's democracy. The concentration of power within a small circle around Macron, particularly his chief of staff, Andrij Jermak, raises concerns about the erosion of democratic institutions. As France navigates this turbulent period, the upcoming elections will test the nation's political resilience and future direction.
 
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