Vlad's Sociopolitical Update 240113

 
Hello, fellow Bulbers :) 

Here is the recent version of "Vlad's sociopolitical update" regarding developments worldwide. I am focusing on migration, refugees, governments, and human rights this time. I am interested in different topics, and if you have a favorite topic, please write to me about it, and I will try to publish it later. Here are some of my recent reads. 

Zurnal (Journal): 

Elections in Serbia 
Serbia's elections have once again been rigged, citizens have once again taken to the streets to defend the election results, and the authorities are once again deploying their thugs, arresting and beating demonstrators demanding a repeat of the elections. International observers have once again noted too many irregularities in the elections, and the call is once again made for someone like Felipe Gonzales to come to Serbia and end the political crisis.
"Once again" is the key phrase in Serbian political and social life, if there is any life where everything repeats and recurs. The current impression is that we are stuck in a destructive infinity, constantly moving in the same circle, without hope for a breakthrough into something new and different. Among the protesters against election manipulation, complaints are often heard about how nothing ever changes in our country. "Here we are on the streets again, just like in the '90s, fighting against the same people as 27 years ago," some say. "I spent the '90s protesting, and now my child is on the streets," say others.

Some sincerely wonder: How did we end up with such an inhumane regime? Or: What did we do wrong to be punished with Vučić and his horde of insatiable courtiers? Oh, what did we do wrong? It seems that we are simply unrivaled in the art of pretending to be naive. Mass graves of our sins and guilt are full, but we prefer to turn our heads the other way.

The opposition in Serbian society wants Vučić out of power and never to return. Few think about how Vučić got there in the first place as the autocrat and master of Serbia. Few are interested in how the radical criminal sludge from which the autocrat emerged was created and how Serbian society so easily succumbed to insane nationalist propaganda. Few want to remember the mass euphoria with which Slobodan Milošević was welcomed, almost like a messiah. Most regime opponents wish for the downfall of the progressives but not to reassess the last thirty years of our history, to confront the monstrous order we created, and the criminal legacy of Milošević's era, whose ideological foundations are still preserved today.
If some Serbian Rip Van Winkle were to wake up after a few decades of sleep, he could calmly continue his life as if nothing had happened. Changes are mostly cosmetic, but the essence remains the same; almost everyone is in power, and the same topics dominate political life.

The government and the opposition compete better to defend Kosovo as an imaginary part of Serbia; regime media still hunt for traitors and fifth columnists; RTS is still an unfree TV Bastille; the idea of Greater Serbia is alive and well, now called the Serbian World; genocide and crimes are still denied and relativized; Ratko Mladić is still a Serbian hero, and the few individuals who speak about Serbian responsibility for wars and massacres are still foreign mercenaries and national traitors.

Admittedly, some things are different. Today's protests lack the intensity and energy of those in the 1996/97 season when Serbia was on its feet for months. It was unthinkable for protests to pause during the New Year and Christmas holidays then. Still, today, it is typical and expected. Today, there is neither the comprehensive rebellion of the entire society nor the massiveness that characterizes daily street protests. Well, if we had endured several wars in the last five or six years, hit rock bottom of poverty, had salaries of five marks, were constantly under sanctions, in isolation, unable to travel anywhere without a visa, and continuing education abroad was a distant dream – probably the protests would be more massive, energetic, and determined even now.

Some things have changed, but self-centeredness remains unchanged. We have never collectively rebelled against the wars and crimes committed in our name, neither then nor now; our personal interests have always been more important than the harm we caused to others. Such egocentrism may be part of the natural order of things. Still, a decisive step out of that natural order is necessary for radical change.

The phrase "Groundhog Day" has become a familiar metaphor for societies unable to break free from a vicious circle, constantly repeating the same mistakes and treading water. Like any other phrase, it is used with little consideration for its origin or a deeper analysis of its meanings. There is something ironic in the fact that only the title phrase from Harold Ramis's entire film has stuck, used frequently and easily, suggesting a certain fatalism and hopelessness.

"Groundhog Day" is not a story of being trapped in time, condemned to repeat the same mistakes, but of personal transformation and redemption. Phil Connors' transformation begins when he honestly and sincerely confesses to Rita what is happening to him, demonstrating that being trapped in one day is real because he has learned everything about the small town's residents. From that moment on, reliving Groundhog Day became a gift Connors used to help others and learn many things, like playing the French piano or sculpting ice sculptures. And to become a better, different person, the one Rita falls in love with.

The film ends with an exit from the time loop because Connors, through his transformation, has broken the spells that bound him. But even if that hadn't happened, if he had remained forever on Groundhog Day, it wouldn't have been a tragedy because he became a man who knows what is important in life and appreciates the value of existence. That point constantly eludes us, hence the fundamentally wrong use of the term "Groundhog Day." The main character used the frozen time to escape the prison he had built himself. Phil Connors from the beginning of the film and Phil Connors from the end are more different than a rabbit and an orchid or a cloud and sand.

Our problem is not that we are trapped in Groundhog Day but that we refuse to understand how we ended up in such a state and do not use the time given to transform ourselves and our society. We have not even reached the first step; we have not looked at ourselves in the mirror and admitted the harm we have done to others. The reasons for our entrapment in an eternal repetition of the same ideological, political, social, and cultural patterns are diverse, but one is still predominant.

We do not believe in repentance and redemption, in transformation and change, in the possibility of a fundamental transformation of personality and society. We first need to renounce these unfounded superstitions to move from a standstill. After that, space will open up for hope that we will eventually reach a future that will not be a copy of a bad past.
 


The Persuasion: The False Link Between Climate Change and Mass Migration

The pervasive belief that climate change will trigger mass migration is echoed in headlines worldwide. The narrative often points to sinking islands and climate refugees, framing cutting carbon emissions as the only solution to prevent an overwhelming influx of climate migrants.
While climate change is a real and urgent concern, associating it with a looming mass migration crisis is misleading. The natural complexity of climate systems makes it impossible to predict exact impacts. Still, there's a consensus that global warming will bring significant changes in climates globally.

Historical evidence shows people often move towards areas with environmental hazards, such as river valleys and coastal regions, due to their fertility and prosperity.
Fertile lands prone to flooding are historically inhabited, and people have developed adaptive strategies like building dykes or floating homes.

Forecasts assume sea level rise will force coastal populations to migrate, overlooking processes of sedimentation that counterbalance erosion and sea level rise.
Studies show that most deltas and coastal marshlands have grown, challenging the assumption that low-lying areas will be submerged.

Environmental stresses do not automatically lead to mass migration; people often prefer staying home despite natural shocks.

Extreme poverty, exacerbated by environmental stress, can trap vulnerable populations, preventing long-distance migration.

The urgency to address climate change is undeniable, but apocalyptic forecasts of massive climate migration lack empirical basis. They rest on faulty assumptions about the relationship between environmental change and migration.

Genuine concerns about climate change should focus on the most vulnerable populations unable to move. The simplistic link between climate change and mass migration undermines the credibility of climate action advocates. It risks diverting attention from those facing life-threatening situations due to climate impacts. Urgent action is needed but should be rooted in accurate information and a nuanced understanding of the complex relationship between climate change and human mobility.

The Unpopulist:      Right-wing populism and economics 

The traditional alignment of U.S. business interests with right-wing ideologies is facing a significant shift due to the rise of populism. Populist leaders from the right and left exploit distrust and anger to advocate for increased government intervention in markets. This newsletter explores the economic consequences of this populist wave and highlights its impact on businesses.

Populism, once considered undemocratic, has gained electoral support globally, reaching nearly a third of the world's GDP in 2018. Populist leaders, irrespective of their professed ideology, employ common strategies: deepening social divisions, centralizing power, and redefining democracy as majority rule. This shift challenges the established political and economic identities of the 20th century.

Contrary to expectations, economic studies reveal that left-wing and right-wing populists follow a similar economic script. Leaders like Viktor Orbán in Hungary, previously a pro-business classical liberal, implemented populist policies such as nationalization, increased taxes, and regulatory manipulation. Economic growth under populist rule is short-lived, followed by a prolonged economic downturn, leading to a GDP 10% lower than non-populist counterparts after 15 years.

Populist leaders personalize politics, centralize power, and undermine independent institutions, creating volatility and unpredictability in their economies. This poses risks to businesses as policies become arbitrary, and the manipulation of data hampers informed decision-making. Corruption tends to rise under populist rule, with market regulations favoring allies and punishing perceived enemies.

Hungary is a case study demonstrating how populist market control can harm businesses. Orbán's Fidesz Party utilized credit, tax regulations, and government procurement to influence markets, determining winners and losers based on political loyalty rather than business acumen.

The U.S. is not immune to these global trends, with a shift in the Republican Party's stance towards big business. The MAGA movement, despite its right-wing alignment, poses a threat to businesses, as evidenced by the challenge faced by pro-business organizations in articulating this danger.

Unchecked majoritarian democracy, as embraced by populists, has the potential to damage economic freedom and wealth creation. Populist leaders prioritize political loyalty over economic principles, leading to a business sector catering to the whims of the ruling strongman. The consequences of unvanquished MAGA populism extend beyond the political sphere, posing a significant threat to the American economy.


European Council on Foreign Relations: Taiwan elections

Taiwan is preparing for a presidential election on January 13, where Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) holds a slight lead in polls. The DPP's tenure has seen strained relations with China and closer ties with the U.S., in contrast to the Kuomintang (KMT) party, which emphasizes avoiding conflict with China. Regardless of the election's outcome, early 2024 is expected to be tense, impacting relations with China, the U.S., and Europe. A DPP victory might provoke increased military and coercive tactics from China, while Europe's role in developing a unified policy towards Taiwan is becoming more significant.

Taiwan has a growing consensus against formal unification with China, with both major parties advocating for increased military spending and more robust deterrence. The KMT has distanced itself from the "one country, two systems" model and the "1992 consensus". China fears a Lai administration might move towards formal independence, which Lai denies. Recent Chinese actions, such as increased military activity and threats of trade sanctions, indicate heightened pressure on Taiwan.

The U.S. remains neutral but has a preference for a DPP administration. There are concerns about potential escalations in Sino-US relations, especially if ties between China and Taiwan worsen. Taiwan seeks more international support, significantly from the U.S., regional partners, and the European Union. Europe showed an increased willingness to support Taiwan in 2023, yet faces internal divisions.

Europe needs a unified stance on Taiwan, balancing support for Taiwan with stable relations with Beijing. European leaders are encouraged to coordinate with global partners and prepare for potential crises involving Taiwan. The Taiwan issue, escalating since the EU's Indo-Pacific strategy launch in 2021, poses significant economic and security challenges. A balanced and united European approach to Taiwan will be crucial for its role in Indo-Pacific security in 2024.

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