Solar Maximum 2025: What to Expect

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14 Jul 2023

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👋Hello, dear readers! Welcome back to my blog, where I share with you the latest news and insights about our amazing universe. Before we dive into today’s topic, please make sure to read my previous post name "The Sun's 11-Year Cycle: What is Solar Maximum?🌞", where I explained what causes the sun to go through cycles of activity and how they impact our planet.

📌In this post, I will tell you more about the upcoming solar maximum in 2025, which is expected to be one of the most intense and unpredictable ones in decades. I will also discuss how it affects Earth and space, and what you can do to prepare for this cosmic event.

What is solar maximum? 🔥

🌞Solar maximum is the period when the sun reaches its peak of activity in its 11-year cycle. During this time, the sun’s magnetic field flips, creating a chaotic and complex pattern of magnetic loops and currents on its surface. These loops and currents generate sunspots, solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and other phenomena that release huge amounts of energy and plasma into space.

🌞Solar maximum usually lasts for a few years, and it varies in intensity and duration depending on the strength of the sun’s magnetic field. Some solar maxima are mild and quiet, while others are violent and stormy. The last solar maximum occurred between 2012 and 2015, and it was relatively weak compared to previous ones.

Can we predict when a CME will hit Earth?

🌠The short answer is yes, we can predict when a CME will hit Earth, but not with 100% accuracy or precision.

Photo - Magnificent CME Erupts on the Sun with Earth to Scale | Wikimedia Commons

🧮The long answer is that predicting CME arrival time is a complex and challenging task that involves several steps and uncertainties.

First, we need to detect and measure the properties of a CME when it erupts from the sun, such as its speed, direction, size, and shape. We can use instruments such as coronagraphs, which are telescopes that block the sun’s bright disk and reveal its fainter outer atmosphere, to observe CMEs in visible light. We can also use other instruments that detect different wavelengths of radiation, such as X-rays or radio waves, to get more information about CMEs.

Second, we need to model and simulate how a CME travels through interplanetary space, which is not empty but filled with plasma and magnetic fields that can affect its trajectory and speed. We can use numerical models that solve equations based on physical laws and principles to estimate how a CME interacts with the solar wind, the stream of charged particles that flows from the sun at all times. We can also use empirical models that use statistical relationships derived from past observations to estimate how a CME evolves over time.

Third, we need to compare and update our predictions with real-time measurements from satellites that monitor the space environment between the sun and the Earth. For example, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, located at the L1 orbital area, can detect the arrival of the CME-associated interplanetary shock ahead of the magnetic cloud, which is the core of the CME that carries an embedded magnetic field. The shock arrival indicates that the CME is imminent and gives us a few hours of warning time.

⭕However, there are many sources of error and uncertainty in each step of this process. For example, coronagraphs have limited fields of view and resolution, so they may not capture the full extent or shape of a CME. Numerical models have limitations in their assumptions and parameters, so they may not account for all the possible factors or scenarios that influence a CME’s propagation. Empirical models have limitations in their data sets and validity ranges, so they may not be applicable or accurate for all types of CMEs. Real-time measurements have limitations in their coverage and frequency, so they may not be available or timely for all events.

🔼Therefore, predicting CME arrival time is not an exact science but an art that requires skill, experience, and judgment. Scientists use various methods and tools to forecast CMEs, such as logistic regression1 , machine learning, data integration, and ensemble modeling. They also use multiple sources of data and information to cross-check and validate their predictions, such as NASA, NOAA, or other official agencies that monitor and report on solar activity and space weather.

✨According to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the current average accuracy of predicting CME arrival time is about 7 hours, with a standard deviation of about 16 hours. This means that there is still a lot of room for improvement and research in this field.

Importance of solar maximum 2025⚠️

🍂The current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, officially began in December 2019, according to NASA. Scientists predict that it will reach its solar maximum between November 2024 and March 2026, but most likely around July 2025. However, some experts warn that it could potentially begin by the end of 2023, years before initial predictions suggested.
Why is this possible? Because the sun has been showing signs of increased activity lately, such as a bumper crop of sunspots, solar storms, and rare solar phenomena. These signs indicate that the sun’s magnetic field is getting more tangled and twisted, preparing for a major reversal.

📌Why is this important? Because solar maximum 2025 could be one of the most powerful and unpredictable ones in decades. Some scientists estimate that it could be up to 50% stronger than the previous one. This means that we could witness more frequent and intense solar flares, CMEs, geomagnetic storms, auroras, and other effects that could have significant impacts on Earth and space.

Affect on Earth and space🌎

🌞Solar maximum affects Earth and space in many ways.

🦜Here are some of the main ones:

Solar flares are sudden bursts of radiation that erupt from the sun’s surface. They can cause radio blackouts, disrupt satellite communications and navigation systems, damage electronics, and increase radiation exposure for astronauts and passengers on high-altitude flights.
Coronal mass ejections are massive clouds of plasma that are hurled into space by the sun’s magnetic field. They can travel at speeds of up to several million miles per hour and reach Earth in one to three days. If they collide with Earth’s magnetic field, they can trigger geomagnetic storms that can cause power outages, damage transformers and grids, affect pipelines and railways, and induce currents in long metal structures.
Geomagnetic storms are disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field caused by CMEs or high-speed solar wind streams. They can create beautiful auroras or northern lights that can be seen at high latitudes or even lower ones during strong events. They can also interfere with compasses, magnetometers, animal migration patterns, and human health.
The solar wind is a stream of charged particles that flows from the sun at all times. It varies in speed and density depending on the sun’s activity. It can interact with Earth’s magnetic field and atmosphere, creating auroras or heating up the upper layers of air. It can also erode or strip away some of the atmosphere of planets or moons that lack strong magnetic fields.
Solar radiation is electromagnetic radiation emitted by the sun across a wide spectrum of wavelengths. It includes visible light, ultraviolet (UV) rays, infrared (IR) rays, X-rays, and gamma rays. It provides heat and energy for life on Earth, but it can also cause sunburns, skin cancer, eye damage, and DNA mutations. It can also affect the ozone layer, the greenhouse effect, and the climate.

How can we prepare for solar maximum 2025? 🛡️

🌞Solar maximum 2025 is a natural and inevitable phenomenon that we cannot prevent or control. However, we can take some measures to prepare for it and reduce its potential risks.

🦜Here are some of the things we can do:

Stay informed about the current status and forecasts of solar activity and space weather. You can check reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA, or other official agencies that monitor and report on these topics. You can also download apps or subscribe to alerts that notify you of any significant events or warnings.

Prepare for emergencies in case of power outages or communication disruptions caused by geomagnetic storms. Have a flashlight, radio, phone charger, water, food, medicine, and other supplies ready. Have a plan to contact your family and friends in case of an emergency. Follow the instructions of local authorities and utility companies.

Shield your electronics from electromagnetic radiation by using an insulated, sealed metal box called a Faraday cage. You can buy one online or make one yourself by lining a cardboard box with aluminum foil or metal mesh. Place your devices inside the box and close it tightly. This will block most of the harmful radiation from reaching your electronics.

Protect yourself from solar radiation by wearing sunscreen, sunglasses, hats, and clothing that cover your skin when you are outdoors. Avoid prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, especially during peak hours. Seek shade or shelter if you feel any symptoms of sunburn or heatstroke.

Protect your devices from solar flares and CMEs by unplugging them from power sources and turning them off when not in use. Use surge protectors, backup batteries, or generators for essential equipment. Store important data in cloud services or external hard drives. Avoid using wireless devices or networks during solar storms or blackouts.

Enjoy the show of auroras or northern lights that may appear during solar maximum 2025. They are a spectacular sight that you don’t want to miss. Just make sure to dress warmly, find a dark and clear spot away from city lights, and use a camera with a tripod to capture the best images.

📌I hope this helps you understand how we can protect ourselves from CMEs & prepare for solar maximum of 2025. If you want to learn more about this topic, you can check out these sources:

Conclusion 🙌

🌞Solar Maximum 2025 is an exciting and fascinating event that will showcase the power and beauty of our home star. It will also pose some challenges and threats to our planet and technology that we need to be aware of and prepared for. By learning more about it and taking some precautions, we can make the most of this cosmic phenomenon and enjoy its benefits without suffering its consequences.

`📢` ***`We hope you enjoyed this article and learned something new about Solar Maximum 2025. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them below. I would love to hear from you !`*`🙌`**

📢And now, I have a question for you: How do you feel about solar maximum 2025? Are you excited, worried, curious, or indifferent? What are you looking forward to or concerned about? Let me know in the comments section.💬

Thank you for reading and stay tuned for more updates on our amazing universe! 🌞

📚 Sources:

What Is the Solar Cycle? | NASA Space Place – NASA Science for Kids.
Solar maximum - Wikipedia.
What is the 11-year solar cycle? - FOX Weather.
How Does the Solar Cycle Affect Earth's Climate? | NASA
Frontiers | Geoeffectiveness Prediction of CMEs
Coronal Mass Ejections - NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Series of CMEs Expected to Impact Earth - The Watchers
Cloudy with a chance of coronal mass ejections | astrobites
Frontiers | Predicting CME arrival time through data integration and machine learning

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