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My goodness.
That was an amazing week.
As I wrote earlier I was disappointed as I did expect a mini God candle after the approval.
But as I said in the same article I might need some patience.
Patience paid off, I got my God candle.
I was watching the charts go to 49K $BTC, that was what was expecting!
And then the dump followed perfectly according to plan only half a day later than expected.
That GOD candle was due to the first day of the ETF being a success, well sort of. Because many peeps went like:
Show Me The Money
One of those thought-provoking questions was this one:
Now in perspective, the Billions from Grayscale are most likely outflows, the rest might already have BTC bought and are just crediting it into the ETF.
Some of the ETF participants probably got their BTC over the counter instead of market buying because Coinbase OTC blew up like Chinese fireworks.
In Summary
But just for the fun of letΒ΄s list them all
- Most $BTC was bought OTC to not disturb the price too much
- OTC will dry up but for now, it delays price movement
- Accumulation pending the ETF has been happening since October
BTC weekly- Many short-term hodlers were selling the news because the media told them to
- 90% of $BTC hodlers were in profit at 45K creating a lot of additional selling pressure, especially for those waiting to break even or get out with a little profit after holding for two years
- And with a 90% expectancy approval was already priced in
ETH is no longer Dead
Therefore the more interesting trade to take here was the $ETH trade and so $ETH did the big boy pump after approval and not $BTC and it probably will keep pumping for a couple of months now the ETH ETF story is sold to the masses.
Hence I swapped 60% of my BTC I use for trading to ETH.
Why only 60%, because you never know and I like holding Bitcoin.
Miners Need To Mine
On top of that all we have the halving.
That means that miners will get half as much BTC for the same work, hence you need to 2X your mining equipment and that is expensive. So it was not unexpected that miners would see the approval as a local top and sell into it, causing Bitcoin miner outflows to hit a 77-month high. Hence in almost 7 years, miners did not dump this much $BTC, and still, the price is trading in the same range as it has since early December.
No Pump, No Dump
I did not buy the moon boy stories or the gloom boy stories.
I think Bitcoin will dabble a bit longer in the current range while smart money moves to ETH and related coins to profit from the money flowing out of Bitcoin and the money flowing into the ETF.
These big institutions will now start actively selling their ETFs to retail investors, creating ETF fever and making Bitcoin an acceptable household name.
Now for those who thought they would no longer have to work after the approval, patience boys and girls. Everything is pointing to a new Bitcoin All-Time High in May.
So once again I will try to sell in May and go away for the summer, or forever if I make 16.8 BTC.
16.8 BTC?
Yes indeed, 16.8 BTC. That should be enough to stop working and enjoy doing nothing for the rest of your life. It will not make you rich, but it answers this thought-provoking question:
Of course what is making it? For me, itΒ΄s no longer having to work.
So based on that, I did the math, very simple math.
Based on the current dollar value you can live on $1500 a month in most parts of the world.
And the other average you probably will live another 40 years.
Forty years therefore would mean you need $720.000.
Now as we use BTC we will not worry about the value of a Dollar 40 years from today.
Another given to keep it simple is that we assume that BTC is a hedge against inflation and that whatever the cost of living may be in forty years itΒ΄s still 0.035 BTC just as it is today.
Now 480 months * 0.035 BTC = 16.8 BTC.
It was 14.4 in my initial calculation
Sorry mate, but itΒ΄s a conservative calculation for those who want to live another 40 years. And itΒ΄s not like BTC is magically gonna increase in worth 100X itΒ΄s that fiat will decrease in value.
But hey never take financial advice from a baby.
No Need To Argue
Of course, you can raise a million arguments as to why I am wrong, and I will probably agree with many of them. But this is just an estimate to answer a very simple question. How much BTC do you think you need to feel you made it? And I think that my answer will prove to be pretty damn accurate, or at least conservative enough to allow you to spend the equivalent of $1500 monthly cost of living over the next 40 years.
Bikini Bottom Line
Well, I would take 16.8 BTC at any time and spend the rest of my life looking at bikini bottoms.
But I also still have a long way to go. I might just make it 48 months, instead of 480 based on my current net worth. Then again, 4 years of looking at bikini bottoms and then being broke might just be worth it.
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
And for those that made it till here if you like a ZKSync Mystery Box use this 
Or code: IV271EP
Just 2 days and a few places left on that waiting list.
