Education as a voting factor and social identity in Sweden

TLDR
In the article "Utbildning allt starkare markör hos Svenska väljare" ("Education as an Increasingly Strong Marker Among Swedish Voters") published via the progressive think tank Dagens Arena, author Olle Bergvall highlights how education has become a key factor influencing political preferences in Sweden. Voters with higher education levels increasingly support progressive and liberal parties, while voters with lower education levels gravitate toward conservative and nationalist parties. This shift reflects larger societal changes, including globalization, migration, and cultural diversity.

This change, which emerged in the early 2000s, is supported by research from SNS Demokratiråd and insights from political scientist Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson at the University of Gothenburg.

Historically, factors such as profession and social class heavily influenced Swedish politics. Sweden was one of the most one-dimensional political systems focusing on the left vs right spectrum regarding socioeconomic topics such as welfare, taxes, and markets.

From 2000 to 2020, educational achievement has become the leading determinant, especially regarding cultural issues like immigration, multiculturalism, and globalization. This mirrors global trends identified by scholars who observed that educated voters in democracies in the EU and the USA have increasingly favored progressive politics over the past several decades.

In Sweden, this shift exemplifies as:

• Higher-educated voters align with progressive parties like the Left Party (Vänsterpartiet), the Green Party (Miljöpartiet), and the Centre Party (Centerpartiet), reflecting cosmopolitan and liberal values.

• Lower-educated voters gravitate toward socially conservative and nationalist parties, most notably the Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna).

The Social Democrats (Socialdemokraterna) maintain strong support among older and lower-educated voters but have also gained modest traction with higher-educated groups. In contrast, the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) has experienced declining support among highly educated voters.

This growing political divide reflects a more profound cultural polarization in Sweden, where values surrounding globalization and national identity overshadow historical economic concerns. Oscarsson explains that this division is about economic redistribution and cultural and social identity, framing politics as a conflict between liberal cultural globalism and conservative traditionalism.

Bergvall also warns of the risk of affective polarization, where emotional loyalty to political parties increases hostility toward opposing views. If political parties exploit this trend, it could deepen societal divisions. Oscarsson parallels the United States, where education-driven political divides have reshaped party affiliations and political strategies.

With around 35–40% of Swedes holding a university degree—a proportion higher than in many other countries—this educational divide is becoming a decisive factor in Swedish elections. As political parties adapt to this reality, the article raises concerns about how these divisions might shape Sweden's political future.

Concluding Reflections
Olle Bergvall's analysis in Dagens Arena offers crucial insights into how education has become Sweden's strongest indicator of political preferences. This shift from class-based to education-based political alignment reflects broader global trends and introduces new challenges for Sweden's political landscape. As higher-educated voters lean toward progressive parties and lower-educated voters support nationalist and conservative movements, the risk of growing political and cultural polarization increases.

Source: Olle Bergvall, "Utbildning allt starkare markör hos svenska väljare," Dagens Arena, January 2025.