Notes about the recent local elections in Bosnia & Herzegovina

TLDR:
The upcoming 2024 local elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina face serious concerns, including voter fraud, democratic deficits, political manipulation, and foreign interference. With key races in Sarajevo, Banja Luka, and Mostar, these elections serve as a critical test for the country's political elites, raising questions about governance and fairness.

Five key challenges threaten democratic integrity and fairness in the 2024 local elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).

• Discrepancies in Voter Registration: 3.4 million registered voters exceed BiH’s actual population, indicating the risk of electoral fraud. International monitors like the OSCE/ODIHR are expected to increase their presence to address potential manipulation.

• Democratic Deficits: Amendments to the election law introduced by High Representative Christian Schmidt prevent individuals convicted of war crimes from running, but only those with prison sentences exceeding six months. This loophole allows problematic figures to continue participating in the elections. Additionally, Schmidt’s decision to involve the military in distributing election materials further undermines the democratic process.

• Political Manipulation: Leading political parties, such as SNSD, HDZBiH, and SDA, have been accused of exploiting public office and resources for campaign purposes. The premature campaigning has resulted in minimal fines, raising concerns about the Central Election Commission’s (CIK) impartiality. There are allegations that the CIK leadership is linked to influential political figures.

• International and National Political Intrusions: Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s involvement in BiH’s elections signals external interference, mainly benefiting HDZBiH. Meanwhile, Christian Schmidt’s focus on non-electoral issues, like lobbying for lithium mining, shows a detachment from BiH’s election process.

• Challenges in Key Cities: The elections in Sarajevo, Banja Luka, and Mostar are expected to be highly contested. Political leaders focus more on securing personal or ethnic power than addressing local governance issues, heightening the stakes for these local races.

 
These elections will test BiH’s political stability amidst growing internal and external pressures.
 
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