Altcoin season ‘more probable’ once Bitcoin hits $80K — Hashkey Capital

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24 Oct 2024

The Bitcoin price has been a focal point of the cryptocurrency market, and analysts at Hashkey Capital now suggest that an upcoming surge past $80,000 could signal the start of the highly anticipated altcoin season. While Bitcoin breaking its all-time high of $73,679 is significant, it may not be enough to initiate this altcoin rally. According to their report, the magic number is $80,000, where a new bullish phase for altcoins may find stronger footing.

Currently trading at around $68,187, Bitcoin's price would need an 18% increase to reach this critical $80,000 mark. The anticipated rise in the Bitcoin price could also elevate Bitcoin's dominance to levels between 62% and 70%, a crucial indicator for the start of the altcoin season, according to Hashkey Capital’s report.

The Importance of Bitcoin Dominance in the Crypto Market

Bitcoin dominance—the measure of Bitcoin’s market share compared to all other cryptocurrencies—plays a key role in determining when altcoin season begins. At present, Bitcoin's dominance is around 58.94%, having recently hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 58.77%. Analysts argue that this percentage must grow further to unlock a widespread altcoin rally. A higher dominance usually indicates stronger market confidence in Bitcoin, but historically, as dominance levels peak, investors begin to move capital into altcoins, triggering a surge in their prices.

Bitcoin dominance is currently 58.94%. Source: TradingView

The dominance metric is critical for understanding the relationship between Bitcoin price performance and the rest of the crypto market. As more funds flow into Bitcoin, altcoins tend to stagnate. However, once Bitcoin stabilizes or reaches certain key price points, investors often look to diversify into altcoins, leading to their price booms. This cycle of Bitcoin dominance followed by altcoin growth has been a pattern in previous bull runs, and the $80,000 target is seen as a potential trigger for a similar scenario.

Longest Altcoin Bear Market in History?

Many crypto market participants feel that the altcoin bear market has dragged on longer than expected. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, remarked in a social media post that this is the longest altcoin bear market ever, even exceeding the duration of the 2014–2016 cycle. This sentiment is widely shared, with investors eagerly awaiting a shift in market dynamics. However, despite the prolonged bear market, optimism remains high among traders, with some memecoins already seeing substantial gains in recent weeks.

Notably, several tokens from the meme coin sector have led the charge. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) has seen an impressive 160.13% increase over the past week, now trading at $0.74. Additionally, Cat in a Dogs World (MEW) posted 25.58% gains, while Popcat (POPCAT) rose 17.13%. These surges in niche tokens have injected a renewed sense of confidence that the altcoin season is not far off.

Nevertheless, seasoned market watchers caution that the next altcoin season might look different than previous cycles. James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, offered a critical perspective, suggesting that the market may have front-run the altcoin season by heavily investing in speculative tokens too early. According to Check, the market has "jumped straight to the punchline," skipping over key steps that typically precede a full-blown altcoin rally.

What an Altcoin Season Could Look Like in 2024

Altcoin season, commonly referred to as "altseason," is a period where altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—experience rapid price increases relative to Bitcoin. These rallies are often driven by a combination of factors, including technological innovations, partnerships, and broader market momentum. However, with growing concerns about market maturity, the upcoming altcoin season may not follow the same trajectory as in the past.

One notable shift could be a greater emphasis on utility and real-world applications, as opposed to speculation. In previous altseasons, much of the price action was driven by hype around new projects with little to no functional products. As the market matures, projects that deliver tangible value to users may become more central to the next altcoin boom. This could lead to more sustainable growth, as investors focus on coins and tokens with long-term potential rather than speculative memecoins.

Moreover, with the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and layer-2 scaling solutions, the altcoin market is more diverse than ever before. These sectors offer new avenues for growth, making it harder to predict which specific tokens will dominate the next altcoin season. However, analysts agree that once Bitcoin surpasses $80,000 and its dominance peaks, the floodgates for altcoin growth will likely open.

Market Sentiment and Future Projections

Market sentiment plays an integral role in shaping the trajectory of the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. Positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin's potential rise to $80,000 has already sparked discussions about the implications for altcoins. As Bitcoin pushes closer to this critical threshold, more traders are likely to adopt a risk-on mentality, seeking higher returns in altcoins.

It's worth noting that while many traders are optimistic about the upcoming altcoin season, the market remains unpredictable. As seen in previous cycles, external factors such as regulatory announcements, macroeconomic trends, and global market conditions can have significant impacts on price movements. Investors should keep a close eye on these factors when assessing whether Bitcoin's rise past $80,000 will truly trigger a widespread altcoin rally.

Bitcoin price movements will continue to dominate headlines, the real excitement for many crypto investors lies in the potential for an altcoin season. With the right conditions—Bitcoin breaking $80,000 and Bitcoin dominance nearing 70%—the stage could be set for a new phase of explosive growth in the altcoin market. As always, investors are advised to stay informed and approach the market with caution, given its volatile nature.