Speculation 101.

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31 Dec 2023
69

The harbor is safe, but thats not what ships are build for…

(P.S I have no idea why formating is ruined so hard, i made it so nice and it just removed all spacing et cetera, bit a mess ;/ whatever. tho it is as is)
Controlling risk and exploiting ev(expected value) loopholes obviously offers highest EV in crypto.
But how to identify that?

For simplicity lets imply its spot trades, this way we eliminate the clusterfuck of convexity which be covered at some other article, and lets identify highest ev approach for spot.
P.S leverage trades end up with pretty much same conclusion just that its all supercharged by convexity delivering more robust and significant positive exposure

So… basic identification first.
Frequency of trade →?

There is lingering misconception that swing trading or trend following is safer and proper way to trade, which is complete delusion dreamt by deranged carpenters, that won lottery in extremely easy bull market, and now pretend to be traders
No matter the size of portfolio, scalping provides tighter risk control, and better timing, PNL profiles

People arguing against that, simply doesn’t understand basics of risk, handicapping, and maths involved in every trade.

What makes scalping best, its frequency, it removes luck, complexity, lowers risk and rises compound returns.

Direction of trade →?

In comparison to contrarian trades, the ongoing trend plays (trend following) delivers substantially less ev via risk profile and timing.

So that gives us the highest EV in the bounce, which is fairly easy to identify.

Which leaves us to bottom hunting activities, waiting for those selloffs to yield the sweat highest EV trade possible

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Which brings us to next chapter of milking the fuck out of trade EV.
As reader already sees i imply he is complete noob, fresh into meat grinder of markets, to make my game harder i educate u, and educating must be done in layman implying u typical CT tard, so lets start.

Chapter 2: Everything u knew about fundamentals is a lie.

i DoNt TraDE LevEraGE, its fOr DEGeneraTES, I TRADE aLtcOINS

It might be hard to swallow but…….
Leverage, u trade leverage and nothing more, there is no fundamentals, your shitcoin have no other meaning than being vehicle for volatility and leverage that trails bitcoin direction.
Many says btc unique, many even says stuff as..
OH, but btC is a heDGE AgAinst infLatIOn!
No, redard bit-coin in markets is highest beta, lowest liquidity, highest risk asset in town. Deal with it, u dirty cultist. When u deal with the realization

Take advantage as higher β always gets unloaded first

So if everything is leverage, and correlated, can we exploit it? or its random?
Obviously it cant be random as u trade shitcoins because they simply move more than bitcoin, bitcoin pumping after nuke pumps altcoins to high skies.

Wait, this pushes us closer to our goal on maximizing EV~ Buying altcoins when bitcoin bottoms out delivers bigger return?? If altcoins is just leverage means we can chart btc and execute on shitcoin that we chosen right?
Leverage go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr………….
While Shitcoin portfolio construction is the most important piece to maximize ev, i never seen a single tweet about that on CT, but after all its special place.
Lack of understanding towards basic risk, correlations and volatility, basically means u already rekt, just dont know about it yet especially if collateralizing in shit that isnt fiat.
You need to understand the volatility of the market u trade in, but we know everyone is degenerate here, so lets just focus on how to yoloying for most return, will fill gaps in upcoming articles…or not…. but its crucial topic i want to cover, so i could move with article about more complex stuff, and archive series of basics to know for every degen.
As we already know scalping give us superior risk control and superior compound return so implying u are risk aware we can exploit the scalping advantage and go full tard, after all best trades styles dont keep traders away from risk and trade, they lets to take more and better trades, to actually stay out of the “Flat” state, is haram.
Pumpamentals and magic that determines how much shitcoin moves is — ->β, that stands for: bitch

aka Beta.

Beta is also informally called “risk”, boomer tards assume -> more volatility indicates more risk (little they know we hacking it all with scalping to remove drawdowns of risk and bath in profits)
In short and serious manner now — -> it tells u both correlation and volatility of shit attached to main asset that moving the market, in this case → btc, as it goes 1%, shitcoin goes up more.

Overall Beta is most crucial value to form momentum strategies, portfolio constructions and other shit, basically its crucial for people that want to maximize their EV and trades more than 1 asset.

During trend, leveraged beta is profit maximalism, obviously it require bit rotation as beta changes with time, and u can leave with wrong end of volatility, rebalancing on consolidations is what should be done, but we aint fucking fund managers here, so we dont give a fuck, we here to scalp.

Reminder that crypto is EXTREMELY TIGHTLY CORRELATED MARKET, INTERNALLY, SHITCOINS IS JUST LEVERAGE. So we dont talk about beta correlation part and focus just to volatility amplification/leverage factor, there is no diversification in crypto land, wake up retard….. Sometimes inversion and negative beta happens but… whatever i dont have time for that today…

know that it goes both ends, if shit of high beta moves more upwards, it will drop more when btc drops…….lol… should delete this part but i know how stupid we all are.



Patrician EVmaxing:

Goes as follow -> we know u redard, so we skip calculations and building of matrixes, just do as follow ->
Track which one have highest volatility, chart on bitcoin, identify bottom (can be done with knife catching shown in previous blogposts) and execute on shitcoin that chart will be noisy, most techniques wont work, key is to chart corn and use shitcoin as vehicle only.

Identify the highest beta altcoin, identified local bottom, milk bounce — -> supercharge the returns.

Do your research, my work here is done. Highest EV chase is complete.
This covered few topics that i always returned to.
Swing/scalp debate, the altcoins being just beta, and also exposes best trade offer that exists in directional trading, which is momentum chase, more info and resources in telegram channel, and overall broad internet.




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