Why I am bullish on Bitcoin! And bearish on US Debt.

Gi2L...Zst4
25 Jan 2024
51

Why I am bullish on Bitcoin!

Well, when I read the Bitcoin whitepaper, I was already looking at Bitcoin's eventual potential of becoming the replacement for the US Dollar. The US Dollar will survive, but it won't forever be the global reserve currency, a status it currently holds. Initially backed by gold, the US Dollar played its role for 80 years. That's an incredible result, however...
The United States made a big mistake by financing China's growth at the demise of its workforce. The consequences are dire: China wants out of the trade: it doesn't want to play by the rules that were agreed upon in the 70ties. As a result, the United States has budgetary shortfalls, making it incrementally more challenging to keep its grip on the world. With China uninterested in buying US Debt, a divided Congress must attempt to keep the ship afloat.
The United States needs to be able to finance its vast empire, which is becoming ever more difficult if not impossible. The era of dollar hegemony is sliding towards an era in which there might be more than one reserve currency. The dollar and other fiat currencies are being inflated by printing too much, and raising rates is impossible because serving the interest on the debt then becomes a $1 Trillion problem. It looks like the end of the line to me.
I do hope for the best and wish to live in a world where Western democracies survive and flourish. It will require them to fight back against China, an increasingly aggressive country led by a dictator who wants to rule the world.
Given this backdrop, we need to be able to insure ourselves against any calamities that may occur: from the war in Ukraine to the conflict in Gaza, proxy wars are emerging and expanding. In the past people would buy gold. Today people can buy a better asset: Bitcoin. Bitcoin has yet to be adopted whereas every family has some gold.
What I like about Bitcoin is that it is an exponentially growing asset, fueling the modernization of the old Western financial architecture that needed an upgrade to survive in the 21st century. There are only 21 million Bitcoins to go around, and several whales have thousands, making Bitcoin a highly scarce asset.
With the ETFs loading up on Bitcoin, and Grayscale temporarily selling Bitcoin, Bitcoin might correct a bit lower, but this will probably be the latest opportunity for retail investors to scoop up on the digital gold. Bitcoin is an insurance policy on the global monetary reset that will change the role of the US Dollar.
Whether the West and the East decouple, whether there are more military conflicts, Bitcoin's scarcity versus the devaluation of fiat currencies during wars makes it a winner to me.


And bearish on US Debt.

The United States will attempt to kick the can into the future when it continues to roll over the debt. I do, however, also believe that after the financial crisis, many world leaders started to realize the vulnerability of the global financial system. The usual fix was to print more money. But the inflation we now suffer can not be printed away, as it is the direct consequence of prior printing.
Who can afford to buy more US Debt? China, like Japan, had more than $1 Trillion of US Debt, which meant that the United States had to pay China the interest on that debt, a pretty significant amount of money. This growing debt burden has reached its full extent, and it will become an enormous task for the US Congress to balance the budget.
One thing is true: the United States can always print enough money, yet it can not guarantee that the value of that money stays stable. This is why I am bearish on US Debt.

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