Trump Outpaces Harris in Polymarket Predictions

Donald Trump's odds of winning the US presidency have risen to their highest level since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden.

Donald Trump now has a 13% lead over Kamala Harris in Polymarket's predictions of who will be the next US president. This is the largest gap established since Ms. Harris replaced Mr. Joe Biden to become the Democratic Party's candidate in late July.

After a period of balance between them since early August, with Ms. Harris at times seeming to have the upper hand with the support of many famous people in the US such as singer Taylor Swift, Mr. Donald Trump began to regain control since mid-September.

In early October, Mr. Trump held an important rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the battleground state where the former President experienced a failed assassination attempt in July. At this campaign, Mr. Trump received official support from billionaire Elon Musk when the CEO appeared directly on stage and stirred up the crowd.

On the social network X owned by him, Elon Musk also affirmed that the prediction rate on Polymarket is more accurate than the statistics given by American media companies, because people use real money to bet on it.

Currently, the market value of predicting the results of the US presidential election on Polymarket has exceeded 1.6 billion USD, increasing by 600 million USD in just the past 3 weeks.

Notably, an investor named Fredi9999 on Polymarket last week bought up to 7 million more shares predicting that Mr. Trump would win, doubling his position with the current value of up to 7.8 million USD. This user is currently making a profit of nearly half a million USD from his bets.

However, according to a recent statistic, most investors on Polymarket are losing money, with only about 2,000 users making a profit of 1,000 USD or more.