BTC price chart seen mirroring US spot Bitcoin ETF launch pattern

Bitcoin’s price chart looks similar to when spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the United States — suggesting a breakout soon, though there are some differences this time around.




The recent decline in Bitcoin price has some similarities to its behavior after United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs ) launched in January, with one trader suggesting that this could mean an upswing in the “next week or so.” 
Spot Bitcoin  ETFs were launched in Hong Kong on April 30, with around $217 million worth of net inflows since. However, the price of Bitcoin has fallen almost 7% since the products launched, according to CoinMarketCap data.WhereAt Social co-founder and crypto trader Quinten Francois suggested the behavior holds similarities to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., which saw the price of Bitcoin fall 14% within 12 days of their launch before rising 7% over the following seven days. 

If Bitcoin’s price continues to follow the same trend, it could see an upswing in the “next week or so,” Francois said in a May 1 post on X.
“There is no straight line to the top. Price correction was more than needed,” added pseudonymous crypto trader StockLizard.


Source: Quinten|048.eth


However, there are some key differences between the two launches. While Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs have seen $217 million worth of net inflows since launching, U.S. ETFs experienced $794 million in outflows over the same period.

The Hong Kong-based ETFs also accumulated only $12.4 million in trading volume on their first day, a major difference from the $4.6 billion first-day trading volume of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Hong Kong’s ETF launches also came just after the Bitcoin halving, which often comes with a period of “sideways” price action along with continued heightened tensions in the Middle East and the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates.

However, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argued in an April 30 post on X that this is a high figure considering the size of Hong Kong is approximately “1/168th the size of the U.S.”
Some traders are concerned that inflows from Hong Kong might not be sufficient to offset the large amount of recent outflows from the U.S., potentially preventing a similar breakout pattern.
“Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs are not enough to absorb US ETF selling pressure,” Crypto trading team TOBTC stated in a May 2 post on X.


Meanwhile, other traders believe the recent price decline is a healthy market correction for Bitcoin’s price.

“The longer theBitcoin consolidation takes the higher its price will meet the trendline,” crypto trader Titan of Crypto stated in a post on X.
“Bitcoin’s most recent correction was much needed for price going forward,” added crypto commentator CryptoCon.
“The thing Bitcoin critics don’t understand is that we simply don’t care if the price drops,” echoed founder of AirBtc Handre van Heerden.

The recent Bitcoin sell-off could soon slow down as the year-over-year M2 money supply has turned positive for the first time since November 2022 — a signal investors use to start looking for hedges against inflation.
Crypto analysis firm Glassnode highlighted an uptick in Bitcoin
BTC “net outflows across all cohorts throughout April, suggesting a consistent sell-side pressure across the board,” in a May 2 post on X.Bitcoin’s price dropped 9.75% over the past 30 days and traded at $59,586 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Source: Glassnode

However, the M2 money supply — an estimate of all cash held and short-term bank deposits across the United States — flipped positive on May 1 year-over-year, meaning an overall increase of money in circulation. Increasing money supply is usually an indicator for investors to turn their focus to assets that outperform in high inflationary periods.
Historically, the Bitcoin and crypto markets have started outperforming the traditional financial markets with a rise in global M2 supply.
The positive shift in M2 money supply has prompted crypto traders to speculate on Bitcoin’s price, as the supply had been in negative territory since November 2022.


Source: Thomas Fahrer

“For the first time, M2 Money Supply is “year-over-year” positive,” professional trader and financial author Oliver L. Velez explained in a May 2 post on X while providing a very bullish outlook to his 49,800 followers:

“All I can say is, “buckle-up” and stack harder. Any and all dips are buyable. Consider them gifts and ignore the bozos calling for doom. We are nowhere near the end of Bitcoin’s bull.”

“M2 money supply set to explode! Bitcoin..And here…we…go,” crypto trading account InvestAnswers told its 204,700 X followers on May 3.
Raoul Pal previously stated in October 2023 that he “loves Global M2... this is when BTC outperforms the NDX and crypto becomes the Super Massive Black Hole.”