Can Tammy Abraham fill the boots of Romelu Lukaku after finally returning from injury?
FotMob - April 18, 2024, 1:20 PM
A grand total of 307 days passed between Serie A appearances for Tammy Abraham, almost a full year on the sidelines after an ACL tear on the final day of last season saw him miss almost the entirety of 2023/24. His reappearance off the bench against Lazio, and another last week against AC Milan in the Europa League, bring him to 20 minutes of action: a slow, careful return with only half an eye on the remainder of this year, perhaps. The bigger picture for AS Roma is of whether he can fill a rather large void next term.
By Karl Matchett

That’s due to the impending departure of Romelu Lukaku, of course. The team’s first-choice striker this season, his loan from Chelsea will end in summer, and the Belgian is tipped for a transfer to the Saudi league to join the likes of Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Huge wages and still a big transfer fee to be paid if anyone wants him permanently means much of the Italian top flight have no chance of landing him for more than one campaign, while any hint of a return to Stamford Bridge has surely long since been burned.

As such it presents both a problem and an opportunity for the Giallorossi: Lukaku’s 17 goals across Serie A and the Europa League have been a big contribution naturally, but he hasn’t been the main man since Daniele De Rossi took over. That award goes to Paulo Dybala, who has seven goals and two assists in league play since the former midfield legend was appointed as Roma boss in mid-January. By contrast, it’s two goasl in his last 11 for Lukaku. Even so, he’s a big presence, constantly available and often involved in the final pass or shot, though not perhaps as much as could be expected: 10 efforts at goal and eight key passes over his last six league games.

Roma share chances around and there’s scope for runners from behind the No. 9 to try their luck with some regularity – meaning the focal point of the attack must be a good link-up player, as well as capable of taking chances themselves. Which brings us back to Abraham.


The English striker had a fragmented 22/23 season, in and out the starting lineup but still playing almost 2,200 league minutes. Across that time he averaged 1.35 chances created per 90 minutes, along with 2.54 shots per 90 which tallied an xG/90 of 0.44. In all three cases, they top Lukaku’s numbers this year: 0.89 chances, 2.09 shots and 0.33 xG, all per 90.

And that was in a hit-and-miss campaign where Abraham scored eight times in Serie A. Prior to that he scored 17 in 3,000 minutes in 21/22 – still creating more than one chance per game on average, and taking close to three shots. His xG/90 that season ranked him above 91% of similar strikers, while he was also above 79% of them for duels won and aerials won. Last term was even better in that regard.

While direct comparisons in metrics are not necessarily helpful given the change in manager, it’s notable that Lukaku ranks above just 43% of Serie A strikers for shots on target this season, 52% for touches in the box, 46% for successful passes, 35% for chances created and a lowly 32% for duels won. On a wider lens view outside just Italy, while Lukaku ranks above 93% of forwards for goals, he’s above just 22% for touches and 6% for defensive actions. Even aerials won, where he is often utilised in-game as an out-ball and for attempted chance creation, he’s only above 53%.

All in all, there’s scope for quite significant improvement on what Lukaku has offered Roma this term – and more than a little reason to suspect that Abraham, once fully fit, is capable of giving it to them.

There is, of course, a journey to still travel down that particular path to ensure he’s ready and firing for 2024/25. Come summer, he’ll have two years remaining on his contract and, aged 26, should be heading into his prime years. It’s clear that Roma have put themselves back on a positive path with De Rossi’s appointment and Abraham offers a stylistic fit – but he’ll also have the returning Andrea Belotti to contend with, himself hoping for far better fortunes next season after a disappointing loan spell with Fiorentina.

The job for Abraham between now and summer is to maintain steady improvements to his fitness and, when the chance arises, show De Rossi that he can be the long-term answer up front. Then, perhaps, he can start to also consider whether adding to his 11 England caps could yet be on the agenda.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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No joys of spring for faltering Arsenal

Arsenal’s form in April looks like costing them dearly again this season after they exited the Champions League and fell behind in the title race.

After costly defeats to Aston Villa and Bayern Munich, the PA news agency looks at the Gunners’ recurring failings at this time of year.

Same old story

Manager Mikel Arteta backed his side to “write our story very differently” against Bayern and had previously called on them to recreate the aura of the 2003-04 “Invincibles”, who won the league without losing a game.

They may instead be following the pattern of Arsenal teams since then who have narrowly missed out on success, particularly last season when they began April eight points clear.

They maintained that margin by beating Leeds on April 1 but drew their next three games and then lost to eventual champions Manchester City as they finished five points behind.

Consecutive league defeats to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton in April 2022 contributed to Arsenal missing out on the Champions League.

This season, they were top after beating the Seagulls but defeat to Villa left them two points behind City. That was sandwiched between the two legs of the Bayern tie, a 2-2 draw at home and Wednesday night’s 1-0 defeat in Germany, leaving them needing to end a three-game winless run when they face Wolves on Saturday.

It is not a new phenomenon either – as far back as 2007-08, Arsenal finished four points off the top after winning only one of eight games from February 23 to April 13.

They took one point from four games in the run-in to end their 2009-10 title challenge and five from the final six games in 2010-11 to finish down in fourth, and winning their final five games in 2013-14 was not enough after they took two points from the previous four. They were top of the league for more days that season than any other team, as was the case last year with a record 248.

Same old faces

The PA news agency understands there are some concerns within Arsenal over tiredness and fatigue taking their toll on the players, and their playing time paints a stark picture.

Eight of Wednesday night’s starting XI – David Raya, Ben White, Gabriel, William Saliba, Declan Rice, captain Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz – have played over 3,000 minutes in all competitions this season.

Those figures exclude stoppage-time and are already more than for either of the previous two campaigns, with six league games still to play.

White, Gabriel, Odegaard and Saka have all hit that threshold in each of the last three seasons for totals in excess of 10,000, with Gabriel leading the way at 11,220. His emergence with Brazil means all bar White are now also regulars for their respective countries.

Gabriel Martinelli could yet add a ninth name to this season’s list and Arteta must work out a way to keep his star men fresh and avoid their now traditional springtime slump.

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Manchester City
Man City predicted lineup vs Chelsea - FA Cup
Holders Man City face Chelsea in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final
City knocked out of Champions League by Real Madrid in midweek
Pep Guardiola will be forced to rotate starting lineup

By James Cormack
Apr 18, 2024
Defeat to Real Madrid was a tough pill for Pep Guardiola to swallow, with the Spaniard saying his side were at their best, "but it was not enough".

Manchester City could have easily progressed into the Champions League semi-finals, but a profligate night at the Etihad combined with Real Madrid resilience and penalty shoot-out misfortune means the Cityzens merely have domestic work to consider the rest of the way.

Their quest for the double-treble is over, but the mere double is very much on. Top of the Premier League after last week's results, City now take on Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-finals.

The swift turnaround from Wednesday's slog means there will doubtlessly be changes, and here's the City team that could start against Chelsea on Saturday.

Man City predicted lineup vs Chelsea (3-2-4-1)
Manchester City v Real Madrid - UEFA Champions League
Man City were beaten by Real Madrid on penalties in midweek / Anadolu/GettyImages
GK: Ederson - Stefan Ortega could come into the side, but Guardiola may want to ensure Ederson rediscovers his groove after a month out. The Brazilian has started City's previous two games.


CB: Manuel Akanji - Akanji started in midweek, but Kyle Walker, who's only just returned from an injury absence, is unlikely to get the nod again. The Swiss defender will be used to nullify Chelsea's speed in transition.

CB: John Stones - Guardiola has been cautious with his utilisation of Stones, with the Englishman earning a cameo off the bench in midweek. With Ruben Dias earning a rest, Stones could lead City's backline at the weekend.

CB: Nathan Ake - The Dutchman was back in the matchday squad against Real Madrid, suggesting he's fit once again.

DM: Rico Lewis - The City youngster has generally impressed when called upon this season, and he could be used in the hybrid role against the Blues.

DM: Rodri - Having earned a rare rest last weekend as City thumped Luton Town 5-1, Guardiola is unlikely to keep Rodri out of the side despite the Spaniard lasting 120 minutes in midweek. Rodri scored in both Premier League meetings against Chelsea this season.

RM: Jeremy Doku - The Belgian was bright on Wednesday and has generally occupied the left flank this season. However, Guardiola could use Doku wide right in a bid to exploit Marc Cucurella's one-v-one woes.

AM: Matheus Nunes - Nunes' season has failed to ignite, although the midfielder has shown glimpses in recent appearances. He was unused against Madrid, so he'll be fresh for this cup tie.

AM: Phil Foden - Kevin De Bruyne was off-key on Wednesday and is a more likely rest candidate than Foden despite the Englishman going the distance. Foden has earned plenty of time off in recent outings.

LM: Jack Grealish - If Guardiola does use Doku wide right, he'll surely opt for Grealish on the opposite flank to offer some balance.

ST: Erling Haaland - His withdrawal after 90 minutes pointed towards yet another disappointing outing against Antonio Rudiger for Haaland. He was a peripheral figure in midweek, but Guardiola will surely keep the faith.

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