Everything Will Change in 2026

One of the most talked about issues in the investment world these days is what will be the future of artificial intelligence stocks. Because they are incredibly high. Since the beginning of this year, that is, in roughly 45 days, we see that SMCI has increased by 251%, ARM by 93%, Nvidia by 50% and AMD by 27%. When we turn it into a year, SMCI's chart is 979%, Nvidia is 219%, ARM is 110%. These are mind-blowing numbers. So is this a balloon? Will it go out? It's very difficult to know what stock prices will do.
Nvidia's balance sheet is coming next week. If Nvidia had a slight cough in terms of growth on its balance sheet, the prices of these stocks would pull back, at least in the short term. Because Wall Street looks at the issue in the short term, but in the long term, the artificial intelligence revolution supported by these artificial intelligence chips is going to a very strange place and according to a new claim, we will reach artificial general intelligence in 2026. What is artificial general intelligence? Artificial general intelligence is the intelligence of a machine that can successfully perform any mental task that a human can do. It is a central goal of some current artificial intelligence research and is a common topic in science fiction and futurology.
Is this really science fiction and will the fiction in that science fiction turn into science in 2026? Very strange things are happening. ARK investment is an investment organization and they publish a great report every year called ARK invest Big Ideas. I definitely recommend you download and check it out. The slide there really surprised me. This slide roughly says that at the beginning of 2020, we believed we had 50 years to achieve artificial general intelligence. Then Open AI came and by the time we saw it, this belief was down to 34 years. This belief is not Ark Invest's belief, but it is the common view of many scientists. Later, new projects of Google and Meta were released. We saw that this period decreased to 18 years. After the launch of Chat GPT 4, scientists started to think that we could reach artificial general intelligence in 8 years.
Look, at the beginning of 2020, the expectation was 50 years. In 2023, this expectation has decreased to 8 years. Even more interesting, scientists may be wrong again. If scientists are not mistaken and this work takes 8 years, we will reach artificial general intelligence around 2030. If scientists are wrong, as they have been wrong so far, we will only reach artificial general intelligence in 2026. This is incredible. What will artificial general intelligence change? It means that we are reaching a technology that does everything that humans do better than humans. At least mentally, robots are a little behind. Because change is more difficult in the physical world.
Based on this, Ark Invest says that the total value of all stocks in the world is currently around 117 trillion dollars. Only $19 trillion of this is related to disruptive innovations. Artificial intelligence plays a big part in this. Remember, Nvidia alone is worth 1.7 trillion dollars. Add to that Google, Amazon, Meta, even Apple and Tesla. These are all artificial intelligence-related companies, you will easily reach that $19 trillion. They say that by 2030, the total value of the world's stocks will reach 360 trillion dollars, of which 220 trillion dollars will be related to disruptive innovation.
In other words, artificial intelligence companies, robot companies, energy storage companies, gene sequencing companies and finally, of course, blockchains that crypto enthusiasts will love. He says the value of companies in this field will reach 220 trillion dollars. If artificial general intelligence becomes a reality in 2026, these figures may grow even further. Because artificial general intelligence will cause an incredible productivity revolution and companies in this field will be the winners of the game. It is very difficult to know whether these numbers are true or false. But yesterday we saw another proof that we are very close to artificial general intelligence.
If you are a movie creator, there is no need for studios, productions or effects anymore. If you give the right orders to artificial intelligence, a lot of things can happen. Of course, it is still a very new technology and very few people can use it. The Open AI team itself uses it. They gave a handful to the creator and he makes mistakes from time to time. When you look at the development and the point we have reached, you will understand more clearly how fast we are going if we compare it with the first examples that produced video from text just a year ago. I think after Sora's presentation, we went from 8 years to 6 years to achieve artificial general intelligence. In this case, maybe we will land in 2025, not 2026.
I think it is now a realistic goal for Sam Altman, the owner of Open AI, the creator of all artificial intelligence videos, to seek an investment of $7 trillion. Because super powerful computers are needed to do all this. Super powerful data centers are needed. There is a need for super powerful operating systems and Sam Altman says that Nvidia etc. are not enough for us today. We need a lot more, he says, and leaks from Open AI show they are much closer to artificial general intelligence than we thought. What does all this change?
For example, when we look at the latest videos produced by artificial intelligence, video producers become uneasy. Because yes, this seems like an introductory phase, but it is not hard to see that video production will take a completely different place after a year. Professions will change. We see that video producers, lighting people, those who dream of this have all changed radically, and this is just a text to video application. Adapt this to health, defense, other areas and see what we have. Therefore, it is not possible to know how the stocks of artificial intelligence companies will move in the short to medium term.
But in the long term, it seems that we are going to a completely different place and I want to be involved in all companies and investments related to artificial intelligence. What I've told you is just a very interesting indicator of where technology is going, and if you stay out of it, I think you will be in trouble both financially and career-wise.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.