Speculation and consequences surrounding the helicopter crash carrying the President of Iran
The sudden departure of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi could not only trigger a power struggle in Tehran, but also have significant implications for the region.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has passed away at the age of 63. (Source: The New Times) Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was known for his tough stance and close relationship with Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has died at the age of 63 in a helicopter crash.
President Raisi, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other officials of this country were killed in a helicopter crash on May 19 in the northwestern region of Iran while on their way back from a visit to the border with Azerbaijan.
Hypothesis and regional impacts
The accident has sparked speculation and raised questions about the circumstances surrounding the incident. As the Iranian people grapple with the loss of a leader, dark clouds predict instability ahead covering the country, with implications that could spread throughout the Middle East.
America needs to take the lead in supporting migrants due to climate change According to observers, the sudden death of President Raisi may not only cause a fierce power struggle in Iran, but also have significant impacts on the region. Amid escalating tensions and conflicts, the unexpected absence of a key political figure like Mr. Raisi could disrupt the fragile balance of power in Iran and beyond.
Although there have been official explanations for the accident being due to poor weather conditions, including rain and fog that obscured visibility throughout the flight, there has also been speculation about possible assassination. .
As Iran's leadership faces challenges both internally and externally, questions arise about the potential involvement of domestic enemies or even external actors.
However, according to experts, the hypothesis of the involvement of other countries in the incident is unlikely. The reason is that assassinating a sitting president would be a direct act of declaring war, which could lead to a harsh reaction from Iran - a country with nuclear deterrence capabilities. According to The Economist, Iran's rival nations “never go so far as to assassinate a head of state – an obvious act of war that would provoke a violent Iranian reaction.”
However, the timing of this accident has exacerbated tensions in the area. Iran's network of proxies across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen further complicates the geopolitical landscape, especially with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Therefore, any instability within Iran's leadership could embolden these groups, potentially leading to more widespread conflict.
Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is expected to become interim President. (Source: AFP)
What will the future of Iran be like?
Mr. Raisi is considered a protégé of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a potential successor to the position of Iran's Supreme Leader in the country's Shi'ite Muslim theocracy.
Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution stipulates that in the event of the president's incapacity or death while in office, if the current President dies, the First Vice President (currently Mr. Mohammad Mokhber) will take power, with confirmation by the Supreme Leader (who has the final say on all state matters in Iran); The Council consisting of the First Vice President, the Chairman of the National Assembly and the head of the judiciary must organize elections for a new president within a maximum of 50 days.
The day after the crash, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei assured the people that there would be "no disruption to the country's operations." Mr. Raisi was elected President of Iran in 2021 and according to the usual timetable, the presidential election is expected to take place in 2025. However, with the current unexpected situation, according to the provisions of the Constitution, Now this election will take place in early July.
Mr. Mohammad Mokhber, 68 years old, is currently the First Vice President of Iran in 2021 after Mr. Raisi was elected president. According to the country's Constitution, Mr. Mokhber will become interim President after the sudden departure of Mr. Raisi. Mr. Mokhber is also considered close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Previously, Mr. Mokhber was the head of Setad, an investment fund linked to the Supreme Leader.
According to Reuters, Mr. Mokhber was a member of a group of Iranian officials who visited Moscow in October 2023, agreeing to provide surface-to-surface missiles and more drones to the Russian military.
In 2010, the European Union (EU) placed Mr. Mokhber on the list of individuals and organizations sanctioned for allegedly being involved in "nuclear or ballistic missile activities." Two years later, the EU included he is off this list.
