The Rare Event Fallacy

also known as the "Gambler's Fallacy," is the misconception that a rare event is more likely to occur because it hasn't happened recently. This fallacy arises from a misunderstanding of probability, where each event is independent of past outcomes. It's commonly seen in gambling situations but can also influence decision-making in various other contexts. Understanding the Rare Event Fallacy is crucial for making informed decisions based on probability rather than flawed intuition.

The Rare Event Fallacy, also known as the Gambler's Fallacy, is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that if an event hasn't happened in a while, it's "due" to occur soon. In reality, the probability of the event remains the same regardless of past outcomes. This fallacy often leads people to make irrational decisions, like assuming a coin is more likely to land on heads after a streak of tails. Understanding this bias is crucial in decision-making, especially in fields like gambling, finance, and risk assessment.
The Rare Event Fallacy, also known as the Gambler's Fallacy, is a cognitive bias where people believe that if something happens less frequently than normal, it's more likely to happen in the future or vice versa. This fallacy can lead to faulty reasoning in various situations, such as gambling or investing, where outcomes are perceived as independent events when they may not be. The article likely explores how this fallacy impacts decision-making and offers insights into how to avoid it.