Eight reasons why the Premier League title race is far from over despite Man City overtaking Arsenal

Manchester City find themselves in a favorable position at the top of the Premier League table following a weekend filled with ideal outcomes. After convincingly defeating Luton Town 5-1, they watched as rivals Arsenal and Liverpool stumbled in their respective matches.

Liverpool's unexpected 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace and Arsenal's 2-0 loss to Aston Villa further strengthened City's position. With a two-point lead over both teams after 32 matches, City are now the ones being chased, a role reversal from earlier in the season.

This is typically the stage of the season where Pep Guardiola's team excels, as demonstrated by their strong finishes in previous title races. Over the past few seasons, City have demonstrated remarkable consistency in the final stretch, dropping only two points in their last six matches when the title was still up for grabs. They have won 15 out of 16 matches and drawn just once in these crucial stages.

Many pundits are suggesting that City's experience and relentless performance make them clear favorites for the title, prompting some to humorously suggest handing the trophy to Kyle Walker already and starting the celebrations. However, it's important not to heed these voices of doubt. Despite City's dominance, the thrilling three-way title race still has much to offer and remains wide open.

Two points & six games

Even with just a single weekend left in the season and Manchester City maintaining their current two-point lead, the title race would remain wide open. Therefore, it's premature to dismiss the chances of Arsenal and Liverpool, especially considering the small gap between them and City, with six rounds of games still to play.

The Premier League has a rich history of dramatic title collapses, serving as a reminder of its capacity for unexpected twists. Manchester United's loss of an eight-point lead to City in 2011-12, Newcastle's surrender of a 12-point advantage in 1995-96, and United's squandering of an 11-point lead to Arsenal in 1997-98 are just a few examples. These instances underscore the league's penchant for delivering surprises and keeping fans on the edge of their seats.

Champions League distraction

Both Arsenal and Manchester City face pivotal Champions League quarter-final second legs this week, with their outcomes poised to significantly impact the Premier League title race.

If City triumph over Real Madrid and Arsenal falter against Bayern Munich, coupled with Liverpool likely exiting the Europa League following their surprising 3-0 defeat to Atalanta, Pep Guardiola's side will face three additional matches compared to their rivals by the end of the season. This includes both legs of the Champions League semi-final and Saturday's FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea. Such a scenario could further strain City's already fatigued squad during the title run-in.

Conversely, another heart-wrenching elimination from Europe's premier competition could deeply affect City and Guardiola psychologically, potentially undermining their confidence at a critical moment in the season.

Four away matches

It has been observed that Manchester City have a relatively favorable fixture list compared to the other two title contenders, with Tottenham being their only top-seven opponent in their remaining matches. However, City's final six games present a challenge as four of them are away from home, highlighting their perceived vulnerability on the road.

City have struggled to replicate their dominant performances away from the Etihad Stadium this season, having failed to win a third of their away games. They have lost three and drawn two out of 15 matches on the road, contrasting sharply with their formidable record at home. At the Etihad, City have won 13 out of 17 league games and have remained unbeaten in all competitions since November 2022.

City hate playing Spurs

Every team, including Manchester City, has a rival team that consistently poses a challenge, and for City, that team is Tottenham Hotspur. Guardiola's struggles against Spurs, especially away from home, have been well-documented. His first defeat in England occurred at the old White Hart Lane, and he endured five consecutive losses in his initial visits to the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium without managing to score a goal.

Although City ended their winless streak at Tottenham by defeating them in the FA Cup in January, their overall record at the venue remains underwhelming, with just one goal scored in six matches. Therefore, facing Tottenham away in their penultimate game of the season on May 16 is far from an ideal scenario for City.

At their limits

Manchester City may possess the resilience to handle demanding fixture schedules better than many teams, but there's no denying that the relentless pace of matches is taking its toll on their squad. Guardiola himself acknowledged the severity of the situation, stating last Friday that "we're in big, big trouble."

Injuries have further compounded City's challenges, with key players like Kyle Walker, John Stones, and Nathan Ake facing fitness concerns. Even goalkeeper Ederson recently returned from a month-long absence due to injury.

Additionally, the heavy workload has led to fatigue among players like Rodri, who has logged more minutes than anyone else in the team. Despite his request for rest following the draw with Madrid, Rodri's respite was brief, and he is unlikely to receive another opportunity to recuperate before the end of the season. This prolonged strain is evident in the wear and tear experienced by several players, highlighting the demanding nature of City's schedule as they navigate through a congested fixture list.

Haaland slowing down

Erling Haaland reached the milestone of 20 league goals for the season with a penalty against Luton, but there's a growing perception that he hasn't been as prolific as in previous seasons, with opposing teams increasingly finding ways to neutralize his threat. In fact, Haaland has been criticized for contributing to some of City's less inspired performances this campaign.

As the season approaches its crucial stages, with teams fighting at both ends of the table, opponents are likely to adopt more defensive tactics, making it challenging for Haaland to find space to exploit. Haaland thrives when he has room to maneuver, so tighter defenses will pose a significant challenge for him. While City possesses other attacking options beyond Haaland, the increased defensive resilience of opponents will undoubtedly make it more difficult for them to secure victories.

115 charges

The shadow of the Premier League's 115 charges against City for alleged financial rule violations continues to loom over the club, providing ammunition for their rivals to criticize them. This unresolved issue holds the potential to significantly impact the title race.

With examples like Nottingham Forest and Everton facing point deductions for breaching the league's Profit and Sustainability Rules, there's concern that City could face severe consequences. Even a minor points deduction announced before the season's end could shift the title race in favor of Arsenal or Liverpool. In the worst-case scenario, City could face relegation and the stripping of previous titles.

While experts caution that resolving such a complex case could take another year or more, the possibility of an abrupt announcement remains.

Never been done before

Throughout the 135-year history of English football, no team has managed to secure four consecutive league titles. Despite attempts by clubs like Huddersfield Town, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United (on two occasions), this elusive achievement has remained out of reach.

According to a source close to City, the opportunity to make history by becoming the first English team to achieve this feat has served as a significant source of motivation for the squad. This has led them to prioritize the league over defending their FA Cup and Champions League titles. However, it's essential not to underestimate the enormity of this challenge and the difficulty of venturing into uncharted territory.