What does the “whale” who bet $30 million on Polymarket that Trump would win the election say?

The investor named Théo asserted that he had no political motives when betting a large sum of money on Polymarket on Trump’s ability to win the presidential election.

The Wall Street Journal interviewed Théo, the investor behind the Fredi9999 account on Polymarket, who is betting up to $30 million on Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election.

Sharing with WSJ, Théo said that he is a French citizen, has lived and worked in the US for a while, and has experience in financial transactions for major banks.

Théo refused to provide more information about himself because he did not want his family and friends to know that he was investing a large sum of money in Trump, as well as revealing his true assets.

When asked why he spent $30 million to bet that Trump would win the upcoming presidential election, Théo revealed that he had analyzed polling data from the 2016 and 2020 elections, both of which underestimated Trump’s support. The investor claimed that polls could not capture the “shy Trump voter effect,” meaning people who would vote for Trump but would not admit it publicly.

Not stopping there, Théo also criticized many polls from major news agencies in the US for deliberately favoring Ms. Harris, making the public feel that this year’s race would be close, while in reality Mr. Trump is completely dominant.

To date, Théo has spent $30 million to buy bets that Mr. Donald Trump will become the next President of the United States. The investor started buying in August through the Fredi9999 account on Polymarket, when the odds of Trump and Harris winning were still even.

However, as the size of his order grew, Théo found that he could no longer buy at the same price, forcing him to create three more accounts to hide his orders. In addition to betting that Trump would win the Electoral College, Théo also bet that Trump would win the popular vote, which is unlikely because there are still battleground states that leave both candidates open.

If Trump wins, Théo could receive up to $80 million on his investment. On the other hand, if Harris wins, the investor would lose all of his $30 million.

Théo is currently unable to exit his position because it has become too large. According to data from Polymarket, “whales” supporting Trump are holding 25% of the value of contracts betting on Trump winning the majority of the popular vote, and 40% of the value of contracts betting on Trump winning the electoral vote.

This is also the reason why there is a conspiracy theory that there is a force intentionally using money to influence the prediction rate on Polymarket, causing the results to increasingly skew towards Mr. Trump in recent weeks. Theo denied that, asserting that he only wanted to make money, and had no political motives.

He added that he was contacted by Polymarket’s legal team to investigate his background information, and no further problems arose. A Polymarket representative said: “The investigation results show that this individual is establishing a betting position based on his personal views on the election results.”

The investor admitted that although he believes 80-90% that Mr. Trump will become the US President, there could still be last-minute surprises.