The Gaza war threatens Mr. Biden's re-election prospects

The risk of Israel's anti-Hamas campaign lasting through the US presidential election makes Mr. Biden's re-election efforts face many risks. "It's time to end this war to start a new day," US President Joe Biden declared on May 31, when announcing a three-phase ceasefire proposal proposed by Israel to end the conflict in the Strip. Gaza.


This is the latest US effort to resolve one of the most painful problems during Mr. Biden's term: The long, disastrous war in Gaza waged by Israel, America's top ally.

Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi said on May 29 that the war in Gaza is expected to last the rest of this year to achieve the goal of "eradicing" the armed group Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also determined to pursue the anti-Hamas campaign in the city of Rafah, southern Gaza, despite opposition from allies and the international community.

These statements cause many concerns about the fate of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, which is facing famine, destruction and large war casualties. More than 36,000 people have died in this area since the conflict between Israel and Hamas began on October 7, 2023. Experts warn that a prolonged war in Gazaa will harm US President Joe Biden's re-election campaign, as his support for ally Israel is facing a wave of domestic criticism and protests.

Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center in Washington, said that the fight against Hamas lasting until the US presidential election on November 5 could mean that Prime Minister Netanyahu will stay in office longer than Mr. Biden. "I would love to say that this scenario is unrealistic, but it is not possible. This scenario is real and it could happen on November 5," Jahshan said.

Observers have believed for many months that Mr. Netanyahu will gain many personal political benefits and enhance his position by prolonging the war in Gaza. But for Mr. Biden, that poses great risks.

Recent public opinion polls in the US show that former President Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate in the race for the White House, is gaining a higher support rate than Mr. Biden, although with a similar gap. relatively small. Recent polls in Israel indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu has regained public support and surpassed his main rival Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet.

The conflict in Gaza will certainly reduce President Biden's chances of being re-elected, according to Josh Ruebner, lecturer in the Peace and Justice program at Georgetown University in the US. "The signs are very clear. If Mr. Biden decides to continue his support for Israel for another 7 months, it will not only cause tens of thousands of additional Palestinian deaths but also cause him to lose the election," Ruebner warned. .

A survey by the Arab American Institute (AAI) in Washington on May 29 showed that the support rate of Arab Americans for Mr. Biden in battleground states was 18%, down sharply from 80%. 2022. The main reason is his Gaza policies. James Zogby, president of AAI, said that Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party would be in "danger" if the war continued until the November election.

That means that if the US President cannot make a big change in the situation in Gaza, this will not be an easy election for him," Zogby said. This expert added that Mr. Biden not only faces the risk of losing the support of Arab voters.

"Young people, black people, Asian people are watching this event every day, witnessing the genocide taking place. They are not insensitive to what they are seeing," he said. "They were appalled. The president said 'the red line hasn't been crossed and we're going to continue what we're doing'. That's outrageous and it's painful."

However, Mr. Biden has not yet shown any signs of change in his policy of supporting Israel, even as Mr. Netanyahu publicly went against all White House calls to reduce civilian casualties and not attack Rafah. .

The US President signed an additional 14 billion USD in aid to Israel. In May, after threatening to stop supplying weapons if Israel launched a major attack on Rafah, the Biden administration still planned to promote a $1 billion arms sale to Tel Aviv. Ruebner said President Biden's campaign is denying the effects of foreign policy on the current election.

"Mr. Biden's aides think this does not affect his re-election chances. But clearly it does and if he allows Israel to prolong hostilities for the rest of the year, I think it will cause Huge disadvantage for him, could even help Biden's opponent win," Ruebner said. A survey conducted by Data for Progress with the website Zeteo shows that 56% of Democratic voters believe that Israel is carrying out "genocide" in Gaza. However, President Biden and many Democratic allies are skeptical about polls showing him leading Trump.


Mr. Biden has always been a supporter of Israel since entering the White House, but Arab Center expert Jahshan said Prime Minister Netanyahu and his right-wing allies have more expectations for Trump's term. "They want to see Trump back. They feel that they will achieve their goals by working with the Trump administration," he said.

Jahshan added that despite Mr. Biden's steadfast support for Israel, calls to support and protect civilians in Gaza coming from the White House make Mr. Netanyahu's allies uncomfortable.

Although President Biden publicly expressed his close relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu, experts said the two leaders seemed to be in a state of tension, especially in recent months.

The US President repeatedly warned Mr. Netanyahu not to conduct an operation in Rafah, but Tel Aviv ignored the "red line" set by Washington and launched an attack that left many people dead in this southern city in the past few months. recent days.