Obstacles prevent peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

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2 Mar 2024
41

More than 2 years since Russia launched its special military campaign, the Russia-Ukraine conflict still has no end, and the prospect of peace talks continues to be dim.
Kyiv Independent newspaper analyzed the main reasons why it is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to sit at the peace negotiating table
Barriers by the Russian and Ukrainian Constitutions

Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in March 2014. By September 2022, Moscow continued to announce the annexation of Donetsk, Lugansk (Donbass), Kherson and Zaporizhia despite the opposition of the Kiev government. The Russian Constitution has also been changed according to the new territories. Thus, regardless of international law, these lands have been regulated in Russia's federal law and state structure.

Similarly, the Ukrainian Constitution will certainly not allow them to give up this land. Even proposals for a temporary special status in Donbass were not approved by the Ukrainian parliament.

Extreme right-wing factions in the country

Far-right groups exist within the political and social apparatus in both Russia and Ukraine. They oppose all political and military compromises with their opponents. Despite all the losses the nation suffered in the battle, these factions believed that any act of compromise with the enemy was considered treason. This is one of the major challenges that the Moscow and Kiev governments must resolve if they want to consider peace negotiations.

The problem revolves around the Crimean peninsula

The Crimean peninsula creates a strategic dilemma for the Kremlin. If the conflict wants to end, it is likely that Moscow will have to give up control of the peninsula, which is considered the political core of Russia's strategy, as well as the anchorage of the Black Sea Fleet. If Russia tries to keep this isolated territory, away from other lands it controls, it will have to sacrifice its economic advantage.

However, the Crimean peninsula is not a potential tool of compromise. During the negotiations, the region was seen as part of the problem rather than a means to solve it.

Ukraine has not created enough military pressure on Russia

According to opinions from the military, Kiev must gain a relative advantage before intending to enter negotiations with Moscow. Only military shocks can keep the Russians in the compromise game
The mature conflict theory in international relations suggests that at a certain point, negotiations will begin to take effect. So, applied to the actual war situation, Kiev will need to wait until Moscow is under enough pressure to agree to start the negotiation process, and that is to negotiate a sustainable agreement, not bring compromise like the Minsk Agreements.
The support of allies is a prerequisite for maintaining Ukrainian forces towards this goal. It can be said that a stable Kiev on the military front will be one of the most important factors in convincing Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire.

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