Some thoughts about Hamas, Israel, and the war

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21 Oct 2023
53

When Russia started the attack on and invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it was estimated by many military experts that the Russian army needed around 150,000 soldiers to control the capital city of Kyiv. This estimation was based on a scenario with 0 regular Ukrainian troops in the city. 

In the case of the Israel - Gaza/Hamas war, the Israeli military can mobilize around 600,000 personnel, which means that a considerable part of the total mobilized military personnel has to be engaged in "destroying Hamas once and for all." Such a case is already considered to be more or less impossible.

One reason is that urban fighting is more complicated and costly, as seen during the war in Ukraine, where the Russian military has faced many problems.
Another reason is that the Israeli military must be engaged against eventual attacks from Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.  

A third reason is that Hamas, like any other terrorist organization, is also a political organization based on ideas, and "killing" ideas is much more complex and slower than killing humans.

In their best-case scenario, the Israeli military can control large parts of Gaza for weeks and months until reaching a ceasefire and negotiations as with Iran, Hamas, and others. 
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