Bitcoin falls below $38,000 as analysis hints the ‘Notorious B.I.D.’ is back.

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22 Jan 2024

Bitcoin’s price trajectory has hit a familiar roadblock, stalling just below the $38,000 mark as whale entities, reminiscent of the ‘Notorious B.I.D.’ from Q1 2023, play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. In this blog post, we’ll delve into recent market developments, on-chain data insights, and expert analyses to understand the current state of Bitcoin and what might be in store for the cryptocurrency in the near future.

1. Price Stagnation and Market Recap:

Bitcoin, after aiming for 18-month highs into November 21, is currently hovering around $37,400. The price action echoes the second week of the month, indicating a potential standoff between bulls and bears. Key insights from order book activity reveal a sense of deja vu, reminiscent of Bitcoin’s recovery in Q1 2023.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

2. Whale Games and the ‘Notorious B.I.D:

On-chain monitoring tools, such as Material Indicators, identify a recurring player, informally dubbed the ‘Notorious B.I.D.,’ potentially shaping bid support once again. Bid liquidity has fluctuated around $33,000 multiple times in the last 30 days, suggesting a strategic move by a major liquidity provider. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan suggests that these entities might be more organized than typical large-volume speculators.
An accompanying snapshot of BTC/USDT liquidity also showed sellers lining up at and immediately below $38,000.

3. Liquidity Snapshot and Seller Resistance:

A snapshot of BTC/USDT liquidity illustrates sellers strategically positioned at and just below the $38,000 mark. The largest order class, ranging between $1 million and $10 million, remains the most active cohort, while other whales decrease their exposure. The situation indicates a critical juncture where market dynamics might be orchestrated by a select group of entities.

4. Expert Insights and Price Forecast:

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm Eight, remains open to the possibility of Bitcoin surging to $40,000 but cautions about a potential swift breakdown. This sentiment aligns with the ongoing trend of higher lows and persistent attacks on resistance levels. Another analyst, Matthew Hyland, raises concerns about a bearish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) if Bitcoin fails to surpass the current 18-month highs below $38,000.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Michaël van de Poppe/X

Final Thoughts:

As Bitcoin treads familiar ground below $38,000, the influence of whale entities, especially the speculated ‘Notorious B.I.D.,’ adds an intriguing layer to the market narrative. Traders and investors are advised to exercise caution and conduct thorough research, considering the potential for a breakout to $40,000 or a swift breakdown. The cryptocurrency market remains dynamic, and staying informed is crucial for making sound investment decisions in these uncertain times.
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Written by Shantanu Gupta

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