The largest crypto bull run in history is fast approaching. We sit at a crossroads in the four year cycle; the transition from bear market caution to bull market euphoric optimism. The bears have not quite capitulated, and the bulls are not yet confident enough to take the reins.
Human nature is one of recency bias by default, the more so in crypto. A crypto month is the equivalent to a Normie year, and a crypto degen often lives in a world of weekly price predictions, open-mouthed Youtube thumbnails, and a vicious hyper-emotional cycle of FOMO and fear.
Successful investors will be those who master the ability to zoom out, and to recognize the importance of conviction combined with careful measured action. Ignore the daily and monthly price movements and focus on counter-trading the masses by weeding out the emotional decisions they inevitably make.
Those who bought Bitcoin as it collapsed to $15K and as the masses screeched about its continued decline are those who set themselves up for generational success. It was extremely difficult to hit the buy button all the way down from $30K Bitcoin, but I bought and bought and bought as most influencoors and crypto tourists screamed about the death of crypto, all while white-knuckle clenching at every subsequent drop. Difficult buys are often the most lucrative buys in crypto.
The few remaining months before the halving are the most important months left in determining the outcome of your crypto investments. This bull run will likely be last and greatest parabolic bull run in crypto, the last opportunity to create generational wealth before the retail and tradeFi masses dilute the market. In cycles to come, the asymmetric opportunities inherent in such a nascent market will become a gated, regulated and saturated insiders’ game like the stock market.
By the end of this Bull Run, I hope to forever escape the rat race we are all born into, and to help as many of you as possible to navigate your way out as well. Make no mistake, crypto is indeed the frontier wild west, with scammers and fraudsters at every turn, with VC’s and projects looking to extract value in any way possible, with thugs and vultures looking to pick over carcasses at every opportunity. Like the wild west, the risks are great, but the rewards are far greater.

2024 & 2025 Crypto Timeline & Strategy:

THE Bull
The greatest alpha in the crypto market lies in finding investments that have a high level of complexity and exclusivity to them — a barrier to entry that gives you an advantage over the masses. The best and most consistent avenue for this advantage over the retail masses are private sales (see launchpad deep dive here). As such, these will be a central focus of my investment strategy, followed by a core bag of high conviction blue chip Altcoins, and a smaller bag of speculative Altcoins. In almost every instance, my portfolio will consists of mid to long term holds, and only a select few shorter terms investments.

Strategy & Tips:

• Focus on Private, Seed and IDO investments
• High priority on vesting terms over pricing.
• Larger bets on high conviction Blue Chip altcoins
• Dynamic profit-taking strategy settling into BTC, ETH and Stablecoins
• 5 Stage profit taking and investment strategy (see details below)
• Minimize unnecessary trading, and look for market fear/euphoria for contrarian investment opportunities
• No leverage, no loans, no liquidation risks, self custody at all times.
• No rushing: better to miss an opportunity than face a big loss on a scam, hack, rug or crappy investment.
• You can’t catch every opportunity, it’s ok to miss some and pass on others.
• Influencers can be a solid resource, but never a substitute for your own due diligence.
• Investment size should always be portfolio appropriate. You need to spread your bags around to ensure no single loss is catastrophic, while still betting hard on high conviction plays.

Bull Run Stages (Timeline):

• I expect the bull run to really take off near June/July 2024, a couple months after the BTC Halving in April, with a fair sized pull back to kick things off a couple weeks after the halving.
• Gradual BTC price increase to roughly $55-$65K in June/July of 2024, followed by a shift to the early parabolic stages of the bull run.
• Bull market lift-off in June/July 2024, accelerating into Q1/Q2 2025 with a blow off top by Fall of 2025.
• Expected new ATH’s for BTC of roughly $185K — $225K, and ETH $18K-23K.
• Dynamic profit taking throughout 2025
• Kill-switch sell date of Sept 2025
• Full blown bear market by End of Year 2025.

5 Stage Bull Market Strategy:

Crypto Strategy Roadmap

Stage 1: Early (Aggressive )— [Start: 2023 / End: March 30th, 2024]

• Aggressive focus on Private and Seed sales, long vesting still acceptable.
• Hold long term Blue chips for later bull run, use for additional liquidity to invest in sales only as needed.
• Smaller focus on open market small cap Altcoins
• Keep moon bags for solid projects even if profit taking
• Heavy over-allocation of funds to Launchpad tokens for private sale access.
• 100% of profits back to Altcoins and new Private Sales
• Staking for high conviction bags with solid APY.

Stage 2: Mid Stage (Moderate Aggressive) — [Start: April 2024 / End: July 30th, 2024]

• Aggressive focus on Private and Seed sales, short vesting becomes higher priority, near-term TGE higher priority
• Max total vesting approx. 18 months
• Continue to HODL Blue Chip Alts
• 75% of profits back to Altcoins and Private Sales
• 15% of profits into ETH
• 10% of profits into Stablecoins

Stage 3: Mature Stage — (Light Conservative) — [Start: Aug 2024 / End: Feb 31, 2025]

• Reduce allocations to private and seed sales, focus on IDO’s (public/listing sales)
• Pass on long vesting terms, max vesting reduced to approx. 10–12 months.
• Continue to HODL core positions/blue chips, divest on outsized parabolic increases.
• Divest ETH and BTC options beginning of 2025 (see full article here on options strategy)
• 40% of profits back to Private Sales and Altcoins
• 25% of profits to ETH
• 15% of profits to BTC
• 15% of profits to Stablecoins
• 5% of profits to Stablecoin Vaults (untouchable)

Stage 4: Late Stage (Ultra Conservative) — [Start: Mar 2025 / End: July 31 2025]

• Short term vesting private sales ONLY, near term IDO’s
• Look to divest core positions on price run-ups, scaling out over 4–5 months.
• Scale out of speculative altcoins with large price increases., hold moon bags
• Keep a very close eye on market sentiment … and do the opposite.
• Begin to gradually sell off launchpad tokens
• 5% of profits back to select private sales and Altcoins with reduced allocations
• 20% of profits to ETH
• 20% of profits to BTC
• 10% of profits to Stablecoins
• 45% of profits to Stablecoin vaults

Stage 5: End Stage (Cash Out) — [Start: Aug 2025 / End: Sept/Oct 2025]

• Aggressive profit taking and scale-out sales of core positions, particularly on run-ups.
• Sell all remaining launchpad tokens aggressively
• OTC sell any non-core private sale allocations where possible
• Sell down some of the accumulated ETH and BTC positions IF prices exceed $185K BTC and $18K ETH, up to a maximum of 50% of the positions.
• 95% of profits to Stablecoin vault only
• 5% of profits to Stablecoins (top opportunities only)
• Full Exit Target Date Sept 2025
• Kill-Switch Exit Date Oct 30th 2025
• Accept the fact that we will not catch the top, and it will be very tough to watch markets fly while we have exited, but this will pay off big time in the long run.