Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Plunge to $69,000 Due to ETF Divestment
Bitcoin has been facing significant downward pressure in recent days. Forecasts from Standard Chartered Bank show that the king coin could "crash" to the $69,000 - $76,500 range this weekend or early next week.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin is in a strong correction phase, with many signs that selling pressure has not stopped. He predicts that Bitcoin will fall further before having a chance to recover. And if the price hits the support zone of $69,000 - $76,500, this is an attractive buying point.
Selling Pressure from ETFs and Hedge Funds
According to Kendrick, an important factor to watch is the outflow of capital from Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded over $1 billion in outflow on February 26. He predicts that there will be more large capital withdrawals from ETFs today. Since the US election in November 2023, the total net purchase of ETFs has decreased by $2.5 billion.
Some experts believe that ETF outflows do not have a big impact on prices, as it may only reflect the closure of carry trades.
Carry trades are a strategy in which investors borrow Bitcoin at a low price, buy it through an ETF, and sell it at a higher price, often with hedging positions. However, Kendrick believes that the size of these trades is not large enough to explain the large outflows from ETFs.
Instead, he points out that hedge funds are increasing their short positions, indicating that institutional investors are betting on Bitcoin's price falling in the near term.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows:
- Hedge fund short positions have increased from $7.9 billion to $11.3 billion since the US election (as of February 18).
- The amount of Bitcoin held through ETFs has increased from $23.5 billion to $40.2 billion before recently falling to $37 billion.
Kendrick also pointed out that the CFTC data only represents short positions on other futures contracts on exchanges, so a more objective view is to look at the growth rate:
- ETF positions have increased by 71% since November 5.
- Hedge fund short positions according to CFTC data have increased by 43%.
These numbers show that ETF investors are still mainly long, making them vulnerable to panic if Bitcoin falls sharply. Kendrick warned that if this capital flows mainly come from retail investors, the risk of a stronger sell-off is entirely possible. He emphasized:
"Watch the capital outflows from ETFs today, because that will be the clearest reflection of market sentiment."
Bitcoin may be shakier, but is it also a buying opportunity?
When asked about the outlook for Bitcoin in the near term, Kendrick said the big question now is whether Bitcoin can recover or will continue to be under downward pressure. One of the important factors affecting the market is Trump's economic policy, especially recent statements on increasing tariffs.
He compared the current situation to August 2024, when Bitcoin plunged from $70,000 to $50,000 in just one week. If this scenario repeats, Bitcoin could fall another 5.5% from current levels, to the $69,000 - $76,500 range.
However, this price level could be a good buying opportunity if the market stabilizes. Kendrick affirmed:
"If Bitcoin falls to $69,000 - $76,500, that's where I'd want to buy."
