Vlad's Sociopolitical Update 231208

Good day, fellow Bulbers :) 

Here is the recent version of "Vlad's sociopolitical update" regarding developments worldwide. I am interested in different topics, and if you have a favorite topic, please write to me about it, and I will try to publish it later. Here are some of my recent reads. 

The Persuasion:
In a surprising move, Venezuelans participated in a non-binding referendum to annex the Essequibo territory, a vast jungle area constituting two-thirds of Guyana's landmass. The leftist dictatorship, led by Nicolás Maduro, strategically revived a longstanding territorial dispute to rally nationalist sentiments amidst economic challenges and a united opposition.
From an international law perspective, Maduro lacks a solid argument for the annexation, and a military venture seems unlikely given Venezuela's military focus on illicit activities rather than warfare. However, the unpredictability of dictatorships is causing regional concerns about the potential for a military adventure.

The roots of the dispute trace back to colonial times when vague maps and hazy borders characterized the region. The turn of the 20th century saw geopolitical shifts, with the United States emerging as a global power and the Monroe Doctrine guiding its foreign policy. The Essequibo territory became a focal point as Britain renewed a claim that, if granted, would significantly impact Venezuela's sovereignty.

Notably, the 1897 Treaty of Washington saw Venezuela enlist the help of American diplomats, including two U.S. Supreme Court justices, in settling the dispute through arbitration rather than armed conflict. The outcome, controversial in Venezuela, favored Britain but spared Venezuela the strategic control of the Orinoco River.

Fast forward to the present, and the world has transformed, with Britain dismantling its empire and granting independence to Guyana. The Essequibo dispute now involves a significant portion of Guyana and a valuable crude oil reserve, adding complexity to the situation.

Venezuela, experiencing political and economic challenges, exploited nationalist sentiments in the recent referendum. Despite historical inaccuracies in the narrative presented to Venezuelans, the Maduro regime has raised concerns by discussing the possibility of annexing the region, creating regional unease.

While military feasibility remains questionable, the referendum's outcome and the regime's rhetoric emphasize the ongoing volatility surrounding the Essequibo dispute, with potential implications for the broader South American region.
 
Cato Institute:
Since assuming the presidency, Joe Biden has faced the challenging task of curbing the influx of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border amid a global displacement crisis. Despite his efforts, the number of border crossings has increased, leading to criticism from Republicans who accuse him of opening the borders.

A House Judiciary Committee report reveals that, during Biden's term, 49% of the five million people arrested at the border had no confirmed departure date, while 51% were already removed. However, a comparison with Donald Trump's last two years in office shows that Trump's policies resulted in fewer removals in absolute terms and a slightly higher percentage of released border crossers than Biden's.

The article argues that regardless of the cruelty or restrictiveness of Biden's policies, they have failed to appease critics and address the underlying issue. It emphasizes the need to move beyond blaming the executive branch for migration trends and calls for a nuanced understanding of the situation.

The piece highlights specific policy continuations from the Trump era, such as Biden's reinforcement of the "asylum ban" and transformation of the "remain in Mexico" plan into "deport to Mexico." Despite these measures, the open-borders myth persists, with the article suggesting that Biden should stake his legacy on something different: legalizing immigration.
The author contends that America needs immigrants to address population decline, a worker shortage, and economic needs. Proposing a shift towards humane and legal immigration, the article suggests that creating viable pathways for legal entry would reduce illegal immigration and resolve related problems, offering a potential solution to the ongoing border challenges.

Give Directly: 
After a two-year study in rural Kenya, GiveDirectly and a team of researchers have released findings on the impact of different universal basic income (UBI) designs. The study involved three groups: a long-term UBI providing $22.50/month for 12 years, a short-term UBI with the same monthly amount for 2 years, and a large lump sum of $500 given once. Contrary to concerns, the monthly UBI did not induce idleness; recipients became more entrepreneurial and productive without working less.

The long-term UBI proved most effective, encouraging savings and investments. However, the lump sum outperformed the short-term UBI in economic outcomes, fostering new businesses and significantly improving incomes. While the short-term UBI excelled in increasing food variety and reducing depression, the study suggests that policymakers should reconsider the common practice of short-term monthly payments for poverty alleviation in favor of more transformative long-term UBI or lump sum models. Future surveys will assess the continued impact over 7 and 12 years. The study concludes that more research is needed, especially in high-income countries, to explore the efficacy of long-term guaranteed income and large lump sum models in addressing poverty.
 
The New Humanitarian:

In Burkina Faso, approximately one million people endure harsh blockades imposed by jihadist groups on numerous towns and villages, exacerbating hunger and causing deaths from preventable diseases. The use of siege tactics by insurgents has intensified since a junta seized power, escalating military operations and enrolling civilians in an anti-jihadist volunteer force. Affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS, jihadist groups enforce blockades as punitive measures. Residents in blockaded areas report collapsing health services, attacks on infrastructure, and food scarcity due to restricted access to agricultural spaces.

While aid workers can reach these towns through costly UN helicopters, distributions are infrequent, and jihadists threaten reprisals for accepting relief. Military convoys delivering supplies and aiding evacuations face sporadic attacks. With 36 towns currently under siege, there are warnings of famine, and Amnesty International cites attacks on civilians and livelihood systems as war crimes.

Communities, developing survival strategies like urban farming and mutual aid networks, grapple with profiteering merchants and poisoned wells. Aid agencies play a crucial role, but access is challenging, and the high cost of UN helicopters limits relief efforts. Amid increasing humanitarian needs and conflict fatalities, calls for dialogue to lift blockades and address underlying issues persist. At the same time, the risk of famine looms over besieged areas.
 
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