Alonso to Real Madrid next summer is now inevitable

It seems increasingly likely that Xabi Alonso will take over as the manager of Real Madrid, especially since the Bayer Leverkusen coach turned down offers from both Liverpool and Bayern Munich.
The situation regarding Xabi Alonso's managerial future seems to have found some resolution, albeit temporarily. Liverpool and Bayern Munich are left uncertain about their next season's coach, but they can now remove Alonso from their lists of potential candidates.

Despite widespread assumptions that Alonso would depart Bayer Leverkusen this summer, he has decided to extend his stay for another year after nearly securing the Bundesliga title for the 2023-24 season.

This decision aligns with his desire to address unfinished business at the BayArena. Leverkusen's qualification for the Champions League and potentially increased transfer funds in the upcoming summer transfer window could bolster their chances of defending their domestic title, especially given Bayern's limited options in the coaching market this summer.

However, beneath the surface of Alonso's apparent decision to stay lies a more ominous implication. While there's optimistic chatter about him "running it back" with Bayer Leverkusen, there's a sense of anticipation lurking in the shadows of the Spanish capital. By postponing his expected departure, Alonso inadvertently grants Real Madrid an unsettling degree of flexibility. It appears increasingly likely that football's most sought-after coach will ultimately bring his expertise to the Santiago Bernabeu, possibly as soon as 2025.

Staying put

For months, it was widely expected that Alonso would depart Leverkusen at the season's end. The pieces seemed to align when Jurgen Klopp announced his impending departure from Liverpool and Bayern's struggles led to the ousting of Thomas Tuchel. Both clubs were in need of a new coach, setting off a chain reaction that also involved Barcelona due to Xavi's resignation, with potential additions from Manchester United, Chelsea, and Juventus.

Rumors spread rapidly, with Liverpool and Bayern often cited as frontrunners for Alonso's services. However, on Thursday, the narrative shifted. Both clubs seemingly abandoned their pursuit of him.

Why? During the March international break, Alonso deliberated over his future and ultimately informed his team upon his return that he would remain with Leverkusen for at least one more season. The coveted managerial figure was now off the market for the summer.

Madrid's managerial situation

Whether by chance or by strategic maneuvering, Real Madrid appears to have orchestrated the situation impeccably. Carlo Ancelotti, their manager, was speculated to be on his way out of the club for some time. The Brazilian Football Federation even claimed they had secured his signature ahead of the Copa America, despite Ancelotti denying knowledge of such negotiations.

However, in December, Ancelotti ended this saga by signing a new contract with Madrid until 2026, thus avoiding the potential awkwardness of his contract expiring alongside the emergence of a revitalized squad he played a key role in building. While the specifics of his contract remain unclear, reports suggest that it doesn't necessarily bind Ancelotti to stay in Madrid as the manager until the end of the 2025-26 season.

This leaves room for him to potentially depart at the conclusion of the next season, precisely when Alonso could become available.

Time really up for Carlo?

This version of Real Madrid stands as one of Ancelotti's most notable projects. While benefiting from the addition of Jude Bellingham, the current frontrunner for the Ballon d'Or, the squad otherwise appears somewhat unbalanced. With an abundance of top-tier midfielders but lacking a natural right winger and having lost Ballon d'Or holder Karim Benzema last summer without adequate replacement, Madrid's setup seemed challenging.

Nevertheless, Ancelotti has managed to address these issues, primarily by deploying Bellingham as a false nine and empowering Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo to operate as split strikers. This tactical adjustment has equipped Madrid with a formidable counter-attacking threat, leading them to a comfortable lead in the league.

However, there's a feeling that Ancelotti's tenure might conclude after the upcoming campaign. With Toni Kroos likely nearing the end of his Madrid career and Luka Modric poised to depart at the end of the current season, coupled with potential arrival of Kylian Mbappe, there's a compelling argument for fresh leadership in the dugout once Ancelotti has had a year to mold the team according to his preferences.

Alonso's credentials

Assuming the helm at Real Madrid is among the most challenging and unpredictable jobs in football. It has propelled some coaches to greatness while proving to be the downfall of others. Ancelotti, in many regards, embodies the ideal candidate for this role. He adeptly handles the intense media scrutiny, manages fan expectations, and allows his team enough freedom to produce entertaining football on the pitch. While his tactical approach has faced criticism at times, his impressive trophy collection across two stints at the club speaks for itself.

On the other hand, Alonso brings a different managerial style to the table. With his esteemed reputation in the football world, he commands respect that will likely grant him some leeway with fans and the media. However, unlike Ancelotti, Alonso is known more for his tactical acumen than his charismatic personality.

Leverkusen provided Alonso with a perfect environment to hone his managerial skills, given the relatively low-pressure situation he entered into. He transformed a struggling team into title winners. In contrast, managing Madrid entails maintaining their status as title contenders while handling the pressure of coaching the world's most expensive squad. This presents a formidable challenge for a manager with less than two full years of top-level coaching experience.

The right fit

the lingering uncertainties, Alonso proves himself as an astute manager who has demonstrated a knack for overcoming formidable opponents. Despite Bayern's status as strong favorites, Alonso managed to upend expectations and significantly impact the league standings. This success suggests that his methods could translate effectively onto a larger stage.

Moreover, Alonso's connection to Real Madrid adds another dimension to his candidacy. Having been a key player for the club during a challenging period marked by fierce competition from Pep Guardiola's dominant Barcelona, Alonso understands the intricacies of representing Madrid. His tenure at the club yielded significant accomplishments, including a La Liga title in 2012, two Copa del Rey victories, and the 2014 Champions League triumph.

After retiring, Alonso returned to Spain and furthered his coaching credentials, spending time in the Madrid academy and subsequently earning promotion as the manager of Real Sociedad's B team. Throughout his journey, he has consistently expressed his affection for Madrid and embodies the values of a true Madridista. Given his blend of experience, intelligence, and loyalty to the club, Alonso emerges as a compelling candidate who appears ready for the challenge of managing Real Madrid.

Inevitable?

The situation could take a different turn for Alonso by the end of the next season. There's a possibility that despite the manager's decision to stay, Leverkusen may lose some of their key players to larger clubs across Europe in the upcoming transfer window, with names like Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, and Victor Boniface already swirling in transfer rumors. Additionally, Bayern Munich could swiftly rebound with the right coach at the helm, and historically, it's challenging for smaller-market teams to sustain success, especially when facing competition from dominant clubs like Bayern (as evidenced by Klopp's experiences).

However, if Leverkusen continues to impress and Alonso's style of football garners attention, his departure could become inevitable. Real Madrid holds significant allure by reputation alone, and the opportunity to work with what could be considered the most formidable squad in the world would be difficult for any manager to resist. Furthermore, Alonso's personal ties to the club add a romantic element to the potential move.

This may not have been the anticipated scenario just a few months ago. Even the most optimistic Madrid fans likely envisioned Alonso remaining in Germany or England for the foreseeable future. But circumstances have shifted, and it appears Madrid will once again assert their influence.