Should we expect a Bull Run in 2023?

First, let's take a look at how Bull Runs have happened in past years:

2013

There were several price spikes in 2013, with the rate gradually climbing until it went into a rapid growth phase and went from $13 to $1,000 in November. Having reached a high, by December the exchange rate had fallen to $500.

2017

In January, the exchange rate returned to $1,000 and continued to grow. By May it doubled, and by December it reached a new historical maximum ($19,000). The growth of the exchange rate was going by leaps and bounds due to traders' uncertainty about the future vector of the price vision. After reaching the high, the price dropped below $10,000.

2020–2021

From the fall of 2020, the trend turned upward ($10,000) and reached $64,000 by April 2021. After that, there was a fall by more than 2 times. The rate recovered by November and reached $69,000. After updating the historical maximum, the rate began to fall. Bitcoin spent all of 2022 in a downtrend.

Now let's look at 2023

There is an interesting pattern, after a down year for Bitcoin, the next year will always be a rising year. Is Bull Run worth waiting for in 2023? The following factors are prerequisites for the occurrence of Bull Run in the fall of 2023:

• Many investors and major bloggers are talking about the near-term growth, but only after a serious correction to the range of $18,000 – $20,000 per BTC. A large number of open short positions shows that trading participants are doubtful about the growth prospects of cryptocurrencies. The liquidation of these short positions can be a trigger for growth.
• In August, 2 companies OSL and HashKey received a license to serve retail users in Hong Kong at once, the total number of applications exceeded 150 pieces. Now Hong Kong residents have a legal way to trade cryptocurrency.
• Twitter's reorganization into Project X, which should soon have DOGE added as a payment instrument. Other coins will probably be added over time.
• Cryptocurrency exchanges have started running new marketing programs with big rewards. These bonuses used to be considered the norm, but last year they were canceled and only returned in July. For example: KuCoin - bonus up to 3200 USDT for completing tasks; Bybit - bonus 30000 USDT on the first deposit; Binance - vouchers up to 100 USDT.
• SEC pressure is waning as court cases last for years.
• Trading volumes on the exchange have fallen sharply; it is during this period that major players build up assets.

What do you think? Will there be a Bull Run in 2023? Or will it be in early 2024?