Bitcoin Will Not Fall Below $60,000 Again: PlanB

Bitcoin has again stolen the spotlight by surging to a new all-time high of $73,760 on March 14, 2024.

This figure marks a significant milestone in BTC’s journey, especially as it approaches the much-anticipated halving. PlanB, a prominent figure within the crypto community, shared insights into this phenomenon, providing a prediction about Bitcoin’s future valuation.

$200,000 Is a Conservative Target for Bitcoin

At the heart of PlanB’s Bitcoin price prediction is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. It anticipates significant price movements in conjunction with halving events by comparing the current supply of Bitcoin against the flow of new BTC entering the market. These are periods when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is halved, thus reducing the supply of new coins.

According to PlanB, BTC’s alignment with the S2F model’s projections, especially before a Bitcoin halving, is a critical indicator of its future performance. The transition from “blue to red” dots in PlanB’s model marks the shift into new phases of the market cycle, with red indicating a bull market.


 “We will have a steep increase in price from here, [potentially] $100,000 this year. [But] note that this model jumps in April to roughly $500,000, which is the average price level in this halving period. It [may] take a couple of months or almost a year to reach that level, so the next top will not be this year, but in next year, 2025,” PlanB explained.

Regarding the next market top, some anticipate Bitcoin reaching $200,000. However, according to PlanB, such a figure might actually fall short of expectations. From an S2F perspective, he is looking at a target significantly above the average, possibly exceeding $500,000, to align with the model’s projections.

A key factor bolstering this optimistic outlook is the behavior of on-chain indicators, such as the realized price and the two-year realized price, demonstrating remarkable growth during bull markets. The five-month realized price, in particular, establishes a new strong support level at $60,000.

“The five-month realized price, that’s the short-term holder price, is at $60,000 right now. That would be the aggressive floor because if we look at previous bull markets then you see Bitcoin price doesn’t go below [the five-month realized price]. So that’s my personal aggressive floor that I think we will not go below again,” PlanB added.


urthermore, the relative strength indicator (RSI) presents an interesting narrative. Currently, at its highest level before a halving, the RSI suggests that Bitcoin is entering this phase with unprecedented strength. This departure from the pattern of diminishing returns in previous cycles could indicate a shift towards exponential growth.

In summary, Bitcoin stands at a pivotal moment, supported by a confluence of indicators suggesting its growth is far from over.