Yashu GolaYASHU GOLAFEB 26, 20244 reasons why Ethereum is finally topping out versus Bitcoin

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3 Mar 2024

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YASHU GOLA
FEB 26, 2024

4 reasons why Ethereum is finally topping out versus Bitcoin

The ETH/BTC pair is showing weakness today. Cointelegraph explains why.
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3:53
MARKET ANALYSIS
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Ethereum’s native cryptocurrency, Ether
ETH
$3,412
, has gained over 20% against Bitcoin BTC
$61,871
since Feb. 12. This notable surge has occurred primarily due to anticipations surrounding the potential approval of a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States by May of this year.However, the widely-tracked ETH/BTC pair has reached a historical inflection point that could boost its correction risks in the coming days. Let’s explore these bearish setups in detail as follows.

Ethereum's bearish fractal returns

Notably, the four-hour ETH/BTC chart below shows Ether treading around its 1.00 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.06044 BTC. In addition, its relative strength index (RSI) reading has turned “overbought” after crossing above 70, indicating a correction scenario.
ETH/BTC 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView
The combination of these two technical data is very similar to the fractal from January 2024 that preceded a 11.65% drop in ETH/BTC rates.
Specifically, an overbought RSI combined with a historical resistance level heightens the likelihood of purchasing fatigue among investors. This scenario could lead to a downturn in Ethereum’s value relative to Bitcoin, beginning with a decline toward the 0.786 Fib line at 0.058 BTC.

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A rising wedge pattern emerges

However, the presence of a rising wedge pattern, which is pending a bearish confirmation, has the potential to depress the ETH/BTC exchange rate further, targeting a decrease of 10.85% to a level of 0.053 BTC from its current position by March.
ETH/USD four-hour price chart ft. rising wedge breakdown. Source: TradingView
Rising wedge formations are generally considered bearish reversal indicators, suggesting a shift from upward to downward momentum.

ETH/BTC shows a descending triangle on the weekly chart

On the weekly timeframe chart, Ether shows signs of bearish reversal as it struggles to close above its multiyear descending trendline resistance. Interestingly, this trendline coincides with ETH/BTC’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
This resistance confluence can limit Ether’s upside attempts in the coming weeks, making the cryptocurrency more prone to pursue a pullback toward 0.051 BTC, a level that has witnessed sharp rebounds in the June 2022 and October 2023–January 2024 sessions.
Related: ‘Pre-halving top’ due soon? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Ethereum whale holdings drop

There’s also a significant divergence observed in the Ether and Bitcoin portfolios of major investors, often referred to as “whales.”
For instance, the number of entities that hold 1,000–100,000 ETH has dropped significantly in February, according to Glassnode data.
Ethereum supply held by addresses with balance 1K-100K ETH. Source: Glassnode
The number of Bitcoin entities possessing over 1,000 BTC has increased, a trend attributed to the surge in capital influx into recently introduced ETFs.
Number of Bitcoin entities holding over 1,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode
This essentially signifies a heightened interest in Bitcoin over Ether among institutional investors, strengthening ETH/BTC's bearish case in addition to the technical factors.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Exchange or buy ETH

Disclaimer: The information contained on this widget is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on this widget constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Cointelegraph or any third party service provider to buy or sell any cryptoassets or other financial instruments. We advise you to spend only what you can afford to lose, and always seek independent financial advice if you are in doubt. You should not purchase any cryptoassets if you do not fully understand the nature of your purchase and the risks involved. We recommend that you refer to the issuer’s/ advertiser’s t&c and help/ support pages for more information.
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TURNER WRIGHT
FEB 26, 2024

Appellate court rejects new trial for ‘My Big Coin’ founder

Three judges rejected arguments that a court violated Randall Crater’s Sixth Amendment rights and included testimony from a crypto expert he claimed was unqualified.
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2:43

NEWS
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An appellate court has upheld the fraud conviction of Randall Crater, who founded cryptocurrency project My Big Coin and was sentenced to more than eight years in prison.
In a Feb. 23 filing for the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, a three-judge panel affirmed Crater’s conviction more than a year after a jury found the crypto founder guilty of four counts of wire fraud, three counts of unlawful monetary transactions and one count of operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business. Appellate Judges Gustavo Gelpí, Jeffrey Howard and Julie Rikelman issued opinions arguing that Carter was not owed a new trial for participating in the crypto scheme.
Feb. 23 filing for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit. Source: PACER
Crater’s legal team argued that the court violated his Sixth Amendment rights by not enforcing subpoenas against witnesses he claimed would help his case, and including testimony from a crypto expert he argued was unqualified — Pamela Clegg, vice president of financial investigations at blockchain intelligence firm CipherTrace. According to the judges, no argument by Crater’s counsel “merits reversal.”
“CipherTrace’s investigation had revealed that MBC was not associated with a public blockchain and, therefore, lacked a crucial indicator of operating as a cryptocurrency until June 2017 -- long after Crater had marketed MBC as a virtual currency comparable to Bitcoin,” said the appellate filing.
Crater founded My Big Coin in 2013 and falsely marketed the firm as a crypto payment service, earning him roughly $7.6 billion in ill-gotten gains from 55 victims between 2014 and 2017. The founder also claimed the platform’s tokens were backed by gold, and the firm had partnered with Mastercard for a user credit card.
Related: Blockchain cybercrimes trigger action from China’s national prosecutor
The Justice Department filed criminal charges against Crater in February 2019. He was convicted in January 2023 and sentenced to 100 months in prison. He was also ordered to pay more than $7.6 million in restitution to victims — funds which, according to prosecutors, he used to purchase a home, cars and antiques.
U.S. authorities have pursued criminal charges against high-profile figures in the crypto space, including former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky, and former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. Zhao pleaded guilty to one felony count and is scheduled to be sentenced in April. A jury convicted Bankman-Fried of seven counts in November, with sentencing scheduled for March 28. Mashinsky awaits trial in September.
Magazine: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime
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