Will US military aid help Ukraine reverse the situation with Russia?
The new US military aid package promises to help Ukraine escape the situation of running out of weapons and ammunition, while narrowing the gap with Russia.
After 6 months of delay and debate, on April 20, the US House of Representatives passed a foreign aid package, including $60.8 billion in support for Ukraine to help the country defend itself. before Russia's special military campaign.
Washington's new military aid package promises to help Kiev escape the situation of running out of weapons and ammunition, while also creating conditions for Ukrainian forces to conduct new long-range counterattacks.
This is clearly good news for the Eastern European country, however, how will this aid package actually affect the Russia-Ukraine conflict? To answer this question, it is necessary to consider the factors that helped Russia gain military superiority in the conflict in recent months. Experts say that it is a combination of three factors.
One is Russia's superiority in artillery. Moscow currently owns a huge ammunition warehouse and can use 5 to 10 times more ammunition than Kiev.
Second, Ukraine's weakened air defense capabilities. While Russian aircraft have recently been able to operate close to the front without being shot down, Kiev positions have been systematically destroyed by Moscow's heavy glide bombs.
Third is the imbalance in human resources. Although they both suffered huge losses in personnel, Russia was able to compensate by continuously mobilizing troops. Meanwhile, Ukraine currently lacks volunteer forces to participate in the conflict.
In the context of Moscow's dominance, Washington's new military aid package for Kiev is of great significance. It is expected that the Pentagon can deliver ammunition immediately after US President Joe Biden signs the military aid law for Ukraine.
It can be affirmed that artillery shells solve the biggest problem because the conflict in Ukraine still mainly uses artillery. Although new technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as well as long-range weapons such as cruise missiles play a significant role in the conflict, the power of artillery remains a key factor. to Kiev's ground advances and defense capabilities.
With concentrated artillery fire, the Ukrainian army can block the advance of Russian tanks more effectively. Above all, the Eastern European country needs 155mm artillery shells for artillery from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) stockpile as well as ammunition for the US Himars missile launcher.
Mr. Matthew Savill, defense expert at the British Royal United Services Institute, said: “We expect artillery (artillery shells and artillery barrels) as well as air defense and missile systems to be prioritized for addition. (Ukraine's) reserves have been depleted due to recent Russian air strikes, especially on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.”
Many problems still exist
Expert Matthew Savill warns that even the rapid supply of artillery shells will not immediately create an equal position for Ukraine with the volume of Russian firepower, but will help narrow the gap between the two. beside. According to military experts, larger ammunition reserves in Eastern Europe are ready to be transferred to Kiev, however, changing the immediate situation may take longer.
Sharing this view, in an article, the Financial Times also commented that the new aid package for Ukraine will likely slow down but not reverse Russia's current attack. Kiev will need time to recover from the difficult first months of the year before it begins to benefit from new supplies of equipment as well as from increased European and American ammunition production.
The US Congress gives President Biden's administration many powers in how to use approved aid money. Specifically, the Kiev support package does not specify the exact type and amount of military aid that will be provided. However, the US House of Representatives has clearly stated the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. This is a ballistic missile with a range from 165km to 300km depending on the version. Thus, this Eastern European country will for the first time receive an ATACMS missile with a range of up to 300km.
The Biden administration has long refused to deliver ATACMS missiles to Kiev and has so far delivered only a small number of short-range versions. With long-range ATACMS missiles, Ukraine can target the entire Crimean peninsula, including Russian naval bases and a strategically important bridge across the Kerch Strait. However, the US Congress also gave President Biden the right to not deliver goods if there are security concerns.
Since Russia launched a special military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022, up to now, total US military aid to Kiev is about 46 billion USD. Compared to this number, the amount of newly approved aid is very significant until 2025 - the time after the US presidential election (November 2024).
In Washington, however, there is no discussion of arming Ukraine against the possibility of Moscow's new ground and air attacks. According to the Ukrainian secret service, Russia is planning a major attack in June and may target the capital Kharkiv. With the new aid, Ukraine can better prepare to respond if this happens.
However, the question remains open as to when and how Ukrainian forces might gain control of some of the occupied territories. Weapons supplies are not Ukraine's only problem.
Currently this country cannot gather enough soldiers for the front. The new mobilization law will not solve this problem. In addition, new recruits need thorough military training, which is difficult to do in a context of unrelenting conflict.
In addition, Ukraine's new units need to correct command shortcomings that remain from last year's disappointing counteroffensive, especially in terms of how to coordinate large-scale operations. Funds approved by the US Congress could be used for training in the NATO area, but the capacity of such courses has so far been too limited.
The urgent question now is when will equipment, weapons and ammunition be delivered to Ukraine? Will they reach Kiev in time before a major Russian offensive, which Eastern European country commanders fear could blow holes in the front lines? And if it's timely, what will happen next?
