Variables that could turn the race for the White House

The trial in New York, world conflicts and the US economy are variables that can greatly impact the race for the White House, when the two candidates have a narrow gap in the survey.

US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump will fight again in November, when the two candidates have both achieved the necessary number of delegates to receive nominations from the Democratic and Republican parties. This will be the first rematch since 1956.

This year's race takes place in the context of many unpredictable developments in the world and within the US. The support for Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in the survey results is not too different.

According to the average poll results compiled by RealClearPolitics on May 6, Mr. Trump received 46.1% support, Mr. Biden's rate was 44.9%. Meanwhile, the average poll results compiled by Decision Desk HQ/The Hill on May 7 showed that Mr. Biden was leading Mr. Trump for the first time since October 2023, 45%-44. 9%.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both facing a series of unique challenges. With such a narrow margin, this year's race to the White House could easily swing in both directions in the next 6 months.


The two candidates both made American voters worried about their health. Mr. Biden, 81 years old, and Mr. Trump, 77 years old, are both the oldest political party candidates in American history. Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have repeatedly affirmed that they are still capable of assuming the position of White House boss.

President Biden in February went to Walter Reed Military Medical Center near Washington, DC for an annual health check and left after 2.5 hours. This is Mr. Biden's last health check before the November election.

"The President is still healthy enough to do his job and fully carry out all his responsibilities without any exceptions or adjustments," said White House doctor Kevin O'Connor. President Biden must wear a ventilator to treat sleep apnea syndrome and improve sleep quality. Mr. Biden also encountered a series of problems such as difficulty walking due to spinal degeneration and root canal treatment, but there were no significant changes compared to last year.

Mr. Trump's doctor Bruce Aronwald in November 2023 concluded that the former president was in excellent health and had "excellent results" on cognitive tests. "Mr. Trump has lost weight by improving his diet and maintaining daily physical activity, while having a very busy schedule," Aronwald wrote.

However, observers still believe that a medical situation forcing one or both candidates to leave the race is not impossible.

The second factor is conflict in the world, with two notable ongoing wars: Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Hamas. American soldiers did not participate in direct combat, but the two events still had a significant impact on the country's politics.

President Biden's administration's effort to provide additional aid to Ukraine was blocked by Republicans in the House of Representatives for months, before being approved late last month. At the same time, Mr. Biden must find an appropriate response to the conflict in the Middle East. A series of protests recently broke out at universities in the US to protest this country's continued financial aid to Israel.

Critics also launched a campaign to choose "not to vote for any candidate" in the Democratic primary elections in the states to express their opposition. Even though there is enough delegates, this move still causes concern for Mr. Biden's election campaign.

Additionally, if the conflict spreads, such as Iran becoming more involved in the Israel-Hamas hostilities, the United States may need to intervene. Mr. Biden's campaign may benefit or retreat depending on public opinion.


The economy can become a hindrance to Mr. Biden. Recent polls show that this is the top concern of voters this year. The unemployment rate is at a record low, below 4%, but many Americans are pessimistic, because inflation still remains above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) target of 2%.
If the US economy declines, it will be difficult for the White House owner to convince voters with an economic message. On the other hand, falling inflation, allowing the Fed to lower interest rates for the first time in months, could bring the optimism Mr. Biden needs.

Third-party presidential candidates are also unpredictable variables, although they usually receive no more than 10% of support. This year, the independent candidate attracting attention is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of the late US President John F. Kennedy. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy in April 2023 as a Democratic candidate, then became an independent candidate.

The Democratic National Committee this year created a group to respond to third-party and independent candidates. Mr. Trump at the end of April attacked Kennedy Jr. is a "far-left liberal candidate installed by the Democrats" to help Mr. Biden win the election.

Mr. Kennedy Jr. sometimes receiving more than 10% support but still needs to improve its position to be able to participate in direct debate in the fall. If successful, this will be the first direct debate involving three presidential candidates in three decades. In addition to Kennedy Jr., this year's race also includes independent candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein from the Green Party. These two candidates do not receive more than 2% support in recent surveys.

A third candidate can siphon off votes from candidates from both political parties. Poll results conducted by NBC News announced on April 21 showed that Mr. Trump was 2 percentage points ahead of his opponent Biden if faced directly. However, with the addition of Kennedy Jr. In the polls, Mr. Biden reversed the situation.


The trial of Mr. Trump in New York for falsifying business records to pay for unfavorable information during his 2016 election campaign is also a notable factor. Manhattan Criminal Court began the trial on April 15, expected to last 6 weeks. This may be the only criminal trial of the four prosecutions that Mr. Trump faces that takes place before election day.

If Trump is found innocent, he will have more motivation to prove that the charges against him are politically motivated. If convicted, this would be an unprecedented situation in American history, but the impact is unclear.


A poll by Yahoo News and YouGov in mid-April showed that 57% of Americans considered "falsifying business records to conceal payment to a porn star" to be a serious crime. The percentage saying that if Trump "is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months, he should not be allowed to serve as president again," was also 57%.

A CNN and SSRS Opinion Panel poll at the end of April showed that about three-quarters of Trump supporters said they would stick with him even if he was convicted. 24% said a conviction might make them reconsider their support, however, the majority affirmed they would not vote for Mr. Biden

"The Manhattan case will end before election day. If convicted, will he be alienated by independent voters? Maybe," said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, a website specializing in reported on the US election results, saying, but did not think that this would have a major impact on American voters in general