12 people will decide Mr. Trump's legal fate

A 12-person jury in a New York court is about to decide whether Trump is guilty or not on charges of paying hush money to porn stars, a decision that could have a major impact on the presidential election.

The Manhattan criminal trial of Donald Trump in the case of falsifying business records to cover up unfavorable information during his 2016 election campaign is gradually coming to an end. After more than a month of oral arguments chaired by judge Juan Merchan, the 12-person jury this week will make the most important decision: Mr. Trump is guilty or not.

The jury, including 12 official jurors and 6 reserve members, was formed during the first 4 working days of the trial, starting on April 15. Their most important task is to determine whether Mr. Trump is guilty or not of the charge of covering up payments to Stormy Daniels so that this porn star would not speak out about his affair scandal before the 2016 election. . During the litigation sessions in recent weeks, the prosecutor and Mr. Trump's legal team summoned a series of witnesses to appear in court to provide testimony to the jury.



Prosecutors summoned 20 witnesses to appear in court, with a total hearing time of more than 50 hours. Among these are Daniels, Trump's former trusted lawyer Michael Cohen, and David Pecker, then president and CEO of media company AMI, specializing in helping Trump "capture and destroy" unfavorable information.


Judge Merchan plans to announce the end of the litigation phase on May 28. The jury will deliberate before reaching a final conclusion. "The most boring part for the jury is sitting and listening to the closing arguments of the parties," said former New York prosecutor Bernarda Villalona. "But ironically the most boring part is the most important, because it provides information for them to make decisions."

The jury consisted of 7 men and 5 women, most of whom graduated from college and two of whom were lawyers. They are selected to ensure they can make the most objective decisions without being influenced by political factors. Based on the testimony of witnesses, they will determine Mr. Trump's legal fate at trial.

"Having two lawyers on the jury seems to be an ideal element in complex and influential cases like Mr. Trump's, but is also a 'double-edged sword,'" said Jeremy Saland, a former prosecutor. Manhattan, said. According to Saland, once on the jury, all their words and actions can have a pervasive impact at an "unforeseeable" level and the public will not want lawyers on the jury. impose their interpretation of the law on the remaining members.

Any decision by the jury requires consensus. If all 12 jurors find Trump guilty, the presiding judge will decide the sentence. American politics will then face an unprecedented situation: a former president, the Republican nomination candidate is now a criminal. Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor, but it is considered a class E felony if done to conceal another crime. Class E is the lowest level of felony in New York, punishable by up to four years in prison.

Poll results conducted by CBS News/YouGov on May 14-21 showed that 56% of respondents believed that Mr. Trump definitely or probably committed a crime. This rate is higher in the group supporting the Democratic Party. The American public was also divided over how the jury reached its verdict.

If the jury decides Mr. Trump is guilty, it will significantly impact his standing in the election. 25% of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted, according to a survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos in April with registered voters. 60% of independent voters share the same opinion.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, is skeptical about the percentage of voters from this faction who actually abandon Trump, but warns that turning away even from a few neutral voters could help President Joe Biden win. nominated.

Tricia McLaughlin, who served as an advisor to Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign, said the guilty verdict would affect Trump's psychology because he hates losing. In addition, Mr. Trump's campaign will have to increase financial resource allocation to legal issues, because the former president will certainly appeal.

Meanwhile, if the jury decides not guilty, it will be a "huge victory" for Mr. Trump, especially when the former president repeatedly criticized the prosecution as a "witch hunt", aimed at preventing his campaign to run for the White House, according to observers. The former president will use the New York ruling to declare that other prosecutions against him have no legal basis, McLaughlin said.



Mr. Trump is also facing two federal prosecutions related to his handling of confidential documents after leaving the White House in Florida, his plot to overturn the 2020 election, leading to the Capitol Hill riot in Washington and his prosecution. State level conspiracy to change Georgia's 2020 election results. Mr. Trump denied all the allegations

If a consensus cannot be reached on a final decision, the jury may inform the presiding judge that they are deadlocked. In federal court and many states, including New York, judges will read the "Allen Directive", urging jurors to reconsider their personal views and change if they feel they are wrong.

The judge will warn jurors not to change their minds if only to reach a verdict or weaken their confidence in the case. Some states in the US prohibit reading the "Allen Directive", because officials believe that this move puts pressure on the jury to reach a unanimous decision.

If this does not resolve the deadlock in the jury, the judge will decide to suspend the trial and restart the trial from the beginning. Mr. Trump may consider suspending the trial as a victory, according to analysts, even though this does not mean he will be acquitted. Karen Finney, a Democratic consultant who worked in the White House under Bill Clinton, said that regardless of the verdict, Mr. Trump will no longer be limited by the speech ban during the trial. Finney is certain that Mr. Trump will attack his opponents more harshly to serve his political purposes