JPMorgan: Bitcoin Still Overbought Despite Price Drop

Global investment bank JPMorgan has cautioned that bitcoin is still overbought despite the crypto’s recent price decline. JPMorgan’s analysts expect continued selling pressure on bitcoin as the halving approaches, “particularly against a positioning backdrop that still looks overbought despite the past week’s correction.”

JPMorgan: ‘Bitcoin Remains in Overbought Territory’

JPMorgan’s analysts, led by global strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, warned in a Thursday note that bitcoin remains in “overbought territory” despite the cryptocurrency’s recent price decline. This suggests that the price of BTC could fall further.
By examining two metrics, JPMorgan’s futures position proxies and the price premium of bitcoin futures compared to the spot price, the analysts explained:

Both metrics indicate that bitcoin remains in overbought territory despite the sharp correction over the past week.

JPMorgan further warned that the recent slowdowns in spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows cast doubt on the market’s optimistic prediction of year-end price hikes. While hopes were high for sustained demand fueled by bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, these new figures suggest the flow of funds into spot ETFs might not be as continuous as some anticipated.
After weeks of inflows, 10 spot bitcoin ETFs that began trading in early January saw money flow out last week as Grayscale’s bitcoin trust (GBTC) continued to see significant outflows. Meanwhile, nine spot bitcoin ETFs, excluding Grayscale’s GBTC, accumulated  $1.3 billion in BTC in six days.

Regarding the future price of bitcoin, the JPMorgan analysts added:

As we approach the halving event, this profit-taking is more likely to continue, particularly against a positioning backdrop that still looks overbought despite the past week’s correction.

Last month, JPMorgan issued a bearish warning, predicting a drop in bitcoin’s price to $42,000 after the April halving. The bank also downplayed the impact of the halving and upcoming Ethereum upgrade, suggesting the market has already factored these events in. Earlier this month, Panigirtzoglou said: “It would be unrealistic to expect bitcoin to match gold within investors’ portfolios in notional amounts.” Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon remains a crypto skeptic, declaring this month: “I won’t personally ever buy a bitcoin.”
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