[ℕ𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕣] 𝕊𝕖𝕝𝕝 𝕐𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝔹𝕚𝕥𝕔𝕠𝕚𝕟 - WEN ALT Season?

BitcoinBaby

2TSj...cEUn

19 Feb 2025

Let me address the elephant currently floating around the cryptoverse:

Was buying ALT Coins my biggest fail?

I told you two weeks ago, I made a 12K profit on ALTcoins in 2021 and I sold the top.

I held 10K in stable and then I got greedy.

Stupid Greedy baby

I said it before and I say it again, I was a stupid greedy baby with no clue.
I sold all in Dec 2021 & started buying back around April 2022.
Then Terra happened, followed by Celsius, and top off by FTX.
I thought that would be the turning point, but it took another year for ALTS to reach their bottom by September 2023.

Ouch

Ouch indeed, because I bought pretty much every dip, my 12K profit ended up being $600. And my investment by December 2022 was over 4K.

Thanks to my BTC on average doing a 4X and being my main holding I never was holding at a loss.

But those damn ALTS nearly killed me.
After three years, I am close to having 12K (8K Profit) in ALTS again.
3 years of grinding, of flipping for a 15% increase on my bags.

My 4K investment in ALTS over those 3 years is nothing compared to the time I invested.
For a brief moment in March 2024, I thought it would all be fine.... the bull market just started and I held close to 12K in ALTS.

A year later..well almost

After a year very little changed.
I have been grinding and flipping till November. Then started to execute my plan!
Stop buying and start selling.

For a moment I thought my timing was perfect as early December 2024 I saw a 15K light!
That Yes:

moment lasted..... less than a week!

Yes we are back, back at 10K, the ALT Coin market has not been kind and I am sure many of you feel the same

WEN ALTSZN?

Now I will base myself on this Binance article as it´s more or less in line with what I expect.

Now, if we take the halving date of this cycle, April 19, 2024, and add 235 days, we arrive at December 10, 2024, which marks the potential start of the next altseason.

That is indeed in line with my expectations hence I started selling slowly and we saw the peak early December, but it did not last.

Now as I told you last week, I love Volatility:
[ℕ𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕣] 𝕊𝕖𝕝𝕝 𝕐𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝔹𝕚𝕥𝕔𝕠𝕚𝕟 - The Real Dip Only Happens Once Every Cycle
And based on previous years Feb & March should be stronger but so far I am 5K disappointed.

And no ALTSZN in sight, so let's see if this is just volatility or if ALTSZN is not coming back.
No ALTSZN This Cycle

But what’s even more interesting (according to the article) is that if we add 310 days (the typical altseason duration from previous cycles), we get… October 18, 2025!

Which is the only bit of light at the end of that ALT tunnel I have been digging myself into for the last 3 years.
Still for now it is a sad sad situation.

What Does ALTcoin Profit Look Like This Cycle

I know that there are a million ways to make more profit than I do, my way is slow and steady and works for me. I am not here to snipe. I am here to enjoy and make a buck of the volatility and not be exit liquidity at the end of the cycle.

For the fun of it, I will take a look at two of my ALTS. And how much I am in profit on those.... or not.
Let's look at two noob coins I have been accumulating a bit later than I should but who did better than many of my other holdings.

SUI

Why SUI?
Well SUI is a great average performer and not an old bag.

There are some coins that did a lot better, even my Old Bag of XRP is sold at an average of 3X but other old bags like LTO & GLMR have not peaked sufficient to even start selling.

SUI on the other hand did well, with a 40 cents low and a $5 top it performed very decent.
Looking at that $5 top I think I got a bit greedy and sold too little.
But let's see:

From March 24 til Nov 24 I bought SUI 35 times, and an average of 17 tokens per buy.
In total, I bought 592 tokens, and paid $763 and the average price was $1.30. SUI is currently trading at $3.

That would have been very interesting I was still holding 600 tokens, but I have to flip. I buy SUI on the dip, sell a top, and buy some more at the next dip.

I started selling in April 24 and sold almost 400 tokens, at an average price of $1.50 which makes perfect sense as that is 17% up from my buying price, a decent flip in my book. As I grew my bags by 17%.

I am still holding 200 SUI, and my investment is $167, while the current worth is $600. So this long-term investment, including the flipping made me a profit of $433 on a $763 investment which is a 1.76X.

Looking at my total investment and my total profit atm looks pretty average indeed.
Now for this last part of the bull market, I am no longer flipping for 17% profit. I am taking it all.
This means I still hold 200 SUI that I plan to sell on the way up, basically above that $5 top. That is the end game, and it needs to happen before December 2024, Ideally before May The 5th be profitable.

If that works out and I sell my SUI at $5 I do a 3X. Of course, I hope to see SUI at $25 by the end of this bull, but I am looking at the bear case scenario... as:

OM

Now I mentioned XRP on which I did a 4X already, and RAY did a similar thing but I was not holding a big bag of RAY, unfortunately. Guess you can not hold all the bags.
But my best performer so far has been OM, better known as Mantra maybe.
I started buying in June 2024, flipping in July, and bought 445 OM tokens at an average price of 0.93 cents.

I sold 234 tokens at an average price of $3 well and 5 cents but that is a 3X already.
My investment is 416 dollars, my sales are 714 dollars and I am still holding 180 OM at $7 atm.
That is another $1260, so if I would sell it all today I would have done a 5X on OM.

Not Bragging

I am not trying to brag, as this is nothing to brag about.
I am trying to paint a realistic picture regarding what profits should look like in these dark Altcoin days.

The 1 million dollar question remains, are these truly only the dark days before that final leg up? Or are we on our way down?

If history repeats itself BTC will go higher, ALTS will follow, and from that new BTC ATH some money will flow into ALTS.

ButBTC and ETH would top, and then holders would move their profit to smaller tokens for more profit before we go down.

Do you really think people with their money in the BTC ETF will move their money to a DOGE and XRP ETF???
And those who hold their own coins, have so many trash tokens to choose from this cycle. That dilution will ruin the true meaning of ALTSZN.

I was hoping to do a 10X like I did in 2021, but I am expecting diminishing returns on ALTS, so a 5X feels more than reasonable.

Thank you, Pump.Fun for extracting all liquidity without giving anything back.
But:
Let´s hope a year from now I am not singing:
Just in case I am right I started selling a little while ago and currently, I sold 24% of my Bitvavo Exchange holdings, of which I want to sell at least 80% by May The Fith Be Fiat.

Results Of A Dumbass Baby Selling His BTC

Let´s See:
Last week my $600 BTC that I swapped for ALTS would have been worth $683, down 1%!
So $676!

Let´s see what my swap is worth this week:
ETH Start $150: last week's worth $138 up 1.4 % = $140
Beam Start $125: last week's worth $66 down 7% = $61.5
SUI Start $175: last week's worth $205.5 down 6% = $193
SOL Start $100: last week's worth $130 is down 12% = $114.5
Curve Start $50: last week's worth $38 down 5% = $36
This week's total: $545

Guess I was too early when I decided ALTSZN would be around the corner early December. BTC would have been the trade so far.

THANKS $LIBRA that this meme garbage may end up like NFTs, a relic from the past.