Russia countered the "fire god" HIMARS, Ukraine strained to destroy the artillery battlefield
Ukrainian forces cannot keep up with Russia's current rate of artillery fire and will need different types of weapons if Kiev wants to reduce its enemy's advantage in firepower.
Artillery shells provided by the West to Ukraine in the future are unlikely to surpass Russia', said Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot, experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Rob Lee, experts at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. , identify.
Ukrainian forces are facing a serious shortage of ammunition and are outnumbered by the Russian army. This marked a significant reversal from the summer period, when Kiev used artillery shells to attack Russian positions. The cause of this situation is due to Russia increasing the production of artillery shells and purchasing weapons from abroad
According to estimates, Ukraine currently fires only 2,000 artillery shells per day, while Russia fires about 10,000 shells per day. Experts believe that Moscow's rate of fire will continue to be maintained at current levels or higher this year.
According to experts Kofman, Massicot and Lee, "because Ukraine was unable to overcome Russia's defenses last summer with its advantage in artillery shells, the prospects for future attacks are dire." unless Ukraine and its backers can compensate by enhancing other advantages."
"This means that the number of artillery shells will have to be supplemented by drones and other precision attack equipment in the future," experts added. Experts said it is worth noting that Ukraine is no longer relying on the High Mobility Artillery System (HIMARS) or Excalibur artillery shells provided by the US to reduce Russian firepower.
HIMARS came into focus when they first appeared on the battlefield in 2022 and when Kiev used them to attack Russian positions, while also preventing Moscow from placing large quantities of ammunition near the front line and maintaining high rate of fire.
But by 2023, Russia had adapted to this problem and moved high-value assets - such as ammunition depots and logistics facilities - out of range of HIMARS, reducing the weapon's effectiveness.
Experts say that with these adjustments, the West and Ukraine need to find new measures to reduce the rate of fire of Russian forces, of which one potential solution is more accurate guided bullets with longer range.
Experts also note that improvements in Russia's electronic warfare capabilities have reduced the effectiveness of advanced GPS-guided weapons such as HIMARS missiles or Excalibur artillery shells supplied by the US. This is another difficult issue that pro-Ukrainian parties will have to resolve when transferring weapons in the future.
Planning not only needs to be based on experience from 2023, but must also take into account adaptability and technological innovation on the battlefield," experts said. Ukraine received several effective precision-guided munitions from NATO members in 2023 and used them to attack Russian targets.
Ukrainian forces used Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles provided by Britain and France to attack Russia's Black Sea Fleet, and switched to using the MGM-140 Tactical Missile System or ATACMS provided by the UK and France. The US provided it to deal a strong blow to Russia's helicopter fleet.
Ukraine has only a limited number of these weapons. Although France recently pledged to supply more SCALP missiles to Ukraine, there has not been any confirmation of new ATACMS attacks and there has been no information about such weapons transfers since the fall. last year. With the future of US military aid to Ukraine still uncertain, Western officials continue to signal that stopping military aid could lead to catastrophic consequences in the near future.
If we want a lasting and just peace, we must give Ukraine more weapons and ammunition. Providing weapons to Ukraine is the path to peace," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during a recent joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
