History shows that Bitcoin and ETH tend to "pump" in July
This is the opinion compiled by market analysts in the report at the end of June 2024.
In particular, QCP Capital analysts said that Bitcoin (BTC) has an average July profit over the years of 9.6% and tends to recover strongly after a negative June.
"...many signs show that we will see a promising July, especially after June showed negative results when BTC just closed the month candle at 62,700 USD - equivalent to a decrease of 6.96 % last month, thereby also "closing" the second quarter with an adjustment of up to 11.69%, the highest since Q4/2022".
Agreeing with QCP Capital, Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han also commented on a "positive seasonal" trend this July.
In Coinbase's latest weekly report, analysts say that both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) tend to perform better in July compared to other months, especially after previous June sell-offs.
"The current market situation looks supportive, as a lot of margin orders have been liquidated following Mt. Gox's announcement. Furthermore, liquidity may improve after the average daily volume of BTC and ETH (spot and options) on global exchanges decreased by 16.7% from May to June, seeing a drop from 90 billion USD to 75 billion USD.
Considering the current crypto market situation, July 2024 also contains risks as well as the potential for a "positive season" for the following reasons:
- German and US officials will continue to transfer large amounts of Bitcoin to the exchange, which is suspected to be gradually sold in July. But analysts expect that these two governments will not be in a hurry to sell when the price is "not yet available", or when The upcoming transfer of Bitcoin to the exchange will have a smaller amount - although just this afternoon they transferred another hundred million USD in BTC.
- MT. Gox plans to start repaying Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash as well as fiat currency totaling 69 billion Japanese yen (510 million USD) in July. However, the possibility of Mt. Gox will delay the return of assets to users - as the exchange's previous trustees had announced that creditors would be repaid before October 2024. If you still pay according to the notice, the first payment amount will only be about 1.5 billion USD, the remaining amount will be paid slowly over time, causing less "negative" impact on the price line for the entire market.
- Potential Ethereum spot ETF could officially be traded this July after the SEC approves the first S1 filing, expected on July 11, 2024. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that if everything goes well, the SEC will likely allow these ETH ETFs to be listed on the stock exchange before the US Fourth of July holiday, opening up a new investment channel. for individual and institutional investors in the US to allocate assets into the crypto field.
- July does not have too much important macro news: In the short term, on July 2 - July 5, there will be a speech by FED Chairman Jerome Powell, data on Unemployment Benefit Requests, Table Non-agricultural wages...this news is unlikely to create a big impact on the general market.
- Based on past data from 2013 - 2023, up to 7 out of 10 recorded "candle close" in July as positive. In particular, this has a higher chance of happening if the previous June witnessed greater "negative" results, then the recovery in July will be stronger.
Statistics of the average closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) in percentage over each month from 2013 - 2024. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin (BTC) started July by soaring from the $60,000 region to a high of $63,500 on Monday, following a brief drop to the $59,000 region last week. The price rally was driven by a recovery in inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs to a positive $73 million - the highest daily net level in the last two weeks
