JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Halving and Ethereum Upgrade 'Are Largely Priced In'

JPMorgan Chase has discussed three main catalysts driving crypto prices over the coming months. The global investment bank’s analysts believe that the Bitcoin halving event and the next major upgrade of the Ethereum network are largely priced in.

JPMorgan on Catalysts Affecting Crypto Prices

Global investment bank JPMorgan Chase has provided its insights into three key catalysts it believes will drive cryptocurrency prices in the coming months. The firm also pointed to a resurgence of retail investor interest in crypto as the driver behind the recent surge in popular cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH).



The JPMorgan team, led by global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, explained that on-chain data, adjusted for new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), shows retail investor activity (small wallets) significantly outpacing institutional flows.
“The revival of the retail impulse in February perhaps reflects the anticipation of three main crypto catalysts over the coming months: the Bitcoin halving event, the next major upgrade of the Ethereum network, and the prospect of approval of spot ethereum ETFs by the SEC in May,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote, adding:

We believe that the first two catalysts are largely priced in, while for the third catalyst we only see a 50% chance.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make a decision on whether to approve a spot ethereum ETF in May. However, SEC Chairman Gary Ganser has consistently refrained from explicitly stating that ether isn’t as security, leading to skepticism of spot ethereum ETF approval. However, some believe that the securities regulator will approve spot ethereum ETFs in May, including Standard Charter Bank.
The JPMorgan analysts further pointed to recent reports from Block Inc., Paypal Inc., and Robinhood Markets Inc. showing net positive bitcoin purchases by their customers in Q4 2023, a significant turnaround from Q3’s sales. This surge in retail activity coincides with Coinbase, a major U.S. crypto exchange, reporting record quarterly bitcoin trading volume in two years. Additionally, the analysts observed a rise in investment activity in AI and meme tokens, which are popular choices among retail crypto traders.
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