Bitcoin Is Going to $80K Regardless of Trump or Harris Win - Traders

61V6...V3s8

23 Oct 2024

As the U.S. elections loom, the cryptocurrency market is buzzing with anticipation. Traders and analysts are closely watching Bitcoin (BTC), predicting a surge toward $80,000, regardless of the outcome. Historically, political changes have created volatility in markets, but experts believe the current macroeconomic environment will push Bitcoin to new highs, no matter who wins.

Bitcoin has long been seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty, and traders are now betting that the asset will climb to $80,000 by the end of 2024, even as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris vie for the presidency. Options markets reflect this optimism, with open interest for calls expiring in late November clustering around the $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices.

Bitcoin Current Trading Price

Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Stance

Donald Trump, once a skeptic of digital currencies, has transformed into a pro-crypto candidate in this election. He’s made clear his ambition for the U.S. to become the “crypto capital of the planet,” attracting support from crypto enthusiasts. Under his leadership, the U.S. could see a deregulated environment conducive to institutional investment in Bitcoin, a factor that would likely push prices higher.

According to surveys, a significant portion of investors believe a Trump victory would create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin, with some predicting a substantial price increase should he return to office.

Trump's economic policies, characterized by deregulation and a pro-business approach, could also create the perfect storm for Bitcoin to reach new heights.Kamala Harris and Regulatory Concerns

In contrast, Kamala Harris has yet to make strong commitments regarding cryptocurrency. The Democratic party’s stance on crypto has been cautious, especially following high-profile incidents like the FTX collapse, which spurred regulatory crackdowns on exchanges like Binance and Coinbase.

Nevertheless, Harris’s potential policies could indirectly benefit Bitcoin. With progressive economic measures such as higher taxes on corporations and a focus on consumer protection, institutional players may increasingly turn to decentralized assets like Bitcoin as a safe haven.

However, the belief among many traders is that Bitcoin will perform well regardless of the election outcome. According to Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at crypto exchange BTSE, the broader market is reacting positively to the upcoming change in administration and policies. He stated, “Both Presidential candidates have adopted pro-crypto stances to appeal to voters, but it's tough to say if any of their promises will come to pass.”

Macroeconomic Catalysts Behind Bitcoin’s Rise

More than just political dynamics, several macroeconomic factors are at play that could boost Bitcoin’s value. Most notably, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, which could flood markets with liquidity. Lower interest rates often lead to increased investment in risk assets, and Bitcoin could stand to benefit greatly.

Furthermore, the 2024 Bitcoin halving—scheduled for April—will reduce the rate at which new bitcoins are created, effectively tightening supply. Historically, these halving events have been associated with significant price increases. Coupled with the potential launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) early in the year, there are strong arguments that Bitcoin will surpass its previous all-time highs.

According to Ryan Rasmussen, a well-known crypto analyst, "There are two major catalysts that will help get us there: the anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 and the halving of new bitcoin supply around the end of April." He believes these factors could push Bitcoin prices well beyond $80,000.

A Broader Market Rally?

While Bitcoin’s price action may seem election-driven, some market experts argue that it is more likely part of a broader market rally. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, points out that recent activity in the options market could represent a hedge against overall market movement rather than just optimism about Bitcoin. "BTC vol skews heavily in favor of higher prices post-election, but that has been the case for quite a few weeks now as an election hedge," Fan said.

This view aligns with the broader trends seen in the crypto markets, where traders often use Bitcoin as a hedge against both economic instability and fiat currency devaluation. As inflation concerns persist, and with the U.S. dollar potentially losing value, more institutional and retail investors could turn to Bitcoin as a store of value.

All Eyes on November

Whether the U.S. election brings a second term for Trump or ushers in Kamala Harris as the new president, Bitcoin seems poised for a breakout. The combination of political shifts, macroeconomic conditions, and Bitcoin-specific catalysts like the halving and potential ETF launch are building a strong case for significant price appreciation. Traders should watch for volatility as November approaches, but the general consensus remains that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory is just getting started.
Regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin’s future looks promising, and the $80,000 target could be within reach by the end of 2024.