Top 10 Crypto and DeFi Predictions for 2023.

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10 Jan 2024

1. DeFi options will explode in popularity when volatility returns

As we saw with Robinhood’s revenue in 2021, there is huge potential for revenue in the options trading space. Robinhood earned $363M net revenue from fees in 2021 ($52M equities, $48M crypto, and impressive $163M options),
However, for DeFi options to become mainstream, the user experience needs to improve and become mobile-friendly.
In addition, there is currently a huge knowledge asymmetry when it comes to options trading due to their complexity. This could translate into massive revenue for whoever manages to create a user-friendly and accessible DeFi options platform, similar to what Robinhood has done for retail option rading.
I am keeping an eye on projects like $RBN, $DPX, $LYRA, $HEGIC, and $PREMIA, but we are not quite there yet.

2. Growth of ‘Modular blockchain’ narrative

Modularity is a key concept for blockchains to finally scale, and I believe we will see a growth in this narrative in 2013.
Companies like Celestia, Bybit’s Mantle, and EigenLayer’s restaking will be hot, but Cosmos, Polkadot, and Ethereum will also benefit from this narrative.
The modular structure of these blockchains will allow them to add new features and protocols in a more efficient way, allowing them to scale and handle more transactions at once.
However, it’s important to note that valuations for Celestia, Mantle and EigenLayer’s new tokens will be high.

3. Ethereum (ETH) will outperform Bitcoin (BTC)

The BTC narrative is currently tied to money printing, which is currently on pause.
On the other hand, the outperformance of ETH is tied to the growth of L2/L3 scaling solutions, pure yield opportunities, EigenLayer’s restaking, DeFi and NFT activity, and being environmentally sustainable (ESG friendly).
However, it’s important to note that the “flippening” (overtaking of BTC by ETH) will probably not happen yet.

4. Increased adoption of Soulbound tokens (SBTs)

Soulbound tokens were introduced 7 months ago by V. Buterin and his colleagues to enable Web3 to reach the real world economy.
SBTs represent your real identity on-chain and are not transferable. These tokens have the potential to bring real-world assets and identities onto the blockchain, making it easier to represent and trade them.

The key to success with SBTs is figuring out how to actually speculate with them.

5. Real world assets to boost DeFi yields

As the DeFi space matures, we will see more and more protocols resorting to traditional finance/real world assets (RWA) for higher yields.
For example, Maker is discussing Dai Savings Rate, so part of traditional finance yield will go to DAI holders.
Credit to Sam MacPherson: https://twitter.com/hexonaut/status/1595865802783211521
This could also be an opportunity for traditional finance companies as well to enter DeFi.

6. Cut-throat competition in the DEX space will lead to more diversification in their business models

Cut-throat competition in the DEX space will lead to their business model diversification: Most DEXes started as Uni V2 forks on different chains.
However, in 2022, we saw them adding new features and expanding to other chains, such as Pancakeswap to Ethereum, Trader Joe to Binance Smart Chain, etc.

Capital efficiency for spot market becomes crucial for survival. Those who fail to compete will introduce new features beyond trading to diversify and survive.
Additionally, the Uni V3 license expires in April, so we’ll see V3 forks and maybe Uniswap V4

7. Renewed interest in the Metaverse/VR

With companies like Apple reportedly launching VR headsets, this could reignite the crypto dreams for decentralized metaverses.
Metaverse crypto projects that manage to launch on the App Store or VR platforms could see serious gains, as they would be able to tap into a new audience and market.

8. Growth of DeFi Lite

As DeFi has grown in complexity, it has become less accessible to new users.
To attract new users, protocols will introduce simplified one-click versions of their main features, such as Instadapp Lite and Oasis Earn.
These simplified versions will make it easier for new users to understand and use DeFi protocols, and will also help increase adoption.

9. At least one major Web2 company will integrate NFTs

With platforms like Reddit showing how NFTs can go mainstream, more Web2 companies will stealthily introduce NFTs without their users knowing.

Teams like Polygon are making it possible for these companies to integrate NFTs in a seamless way.

10. Arrival of new generation hardware wallets

2022 was a lesson for the importance of self-custody, but it’s not easy.
We have Ledger Stax and improvements for Keystone coming, but I hope to see more advancements in seedless recovery, better integration with dApps, and vastly improved user experience.
These new hardware wallets will make it easier for users to securely store their cryptocurrencies and access the DeFi space.
Follow for insight on DeFi and what’s happening in the crypto world.
👉Twitter: https://twitter.com/DefiIgnas
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