Russia 'nuclear dance' with NATO

Russia's recent tactical nuclear exercise is part of a series of 'fighting and rubbing' moves by the Kremlin with the West.


Decisiveness in deploying tactical nuclear weapons not only helps the Kremlin effectively counterbalance the trend of openly strengthening attack capabilities from NATO's "nuclear belt" approaching its western border, but also effectively suppressed the chaotic state of Mr. Zelensky's government when urgently requesting the West to participate directly in the Ukrainian battlefield.

"New balance" with NATO

Unlike public opinion's concerns about the nuclear deterrence between Russia and NATO, which is tending to escalate out of control, developments on the ground reveal signs that both sides are following suit. take extremely cautious, even somewhat restrained, steps so as not to push the nuclear balance to become too unfavorable for the opponent.

The first indication showing this trend of "self-restraint" was the move of Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on May 21 to confirm the nuclear test a week earlier by the Nuclear Security Agency. National Security Agency (NNSA) in Nevada "does not constitute a violation of the provisions of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) or the United States nuclear test ban".

In fact, the US side has not yet ratified the CTBT and this is the first near-limit nuclear test (not causing an explosion) conducted by the US since September 2021, so it has caused great concern to the public. international discussion.

The US side also has many signs showing "self-restraint" when it has just officially issued a nuclear certificate ahead of time for the F-35A aircraft to be allowed to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bomb (and only the correct version). this) in March this year.

This decision creates a huge threat to Russia when Lockheed Martin Corporation estimates that by 2030 there will be up to 550 F-35s operating in Europe. Therefore, the dominance of the F-35 will make the ability to transport B61-12 thermonuclear bombs from Europe to Russian territory extremely dangerous.

However, in a surprising move, the US Department of Defense now switched to focusing on developing a new type of nuclear bomb, the B61-13, after delaying the B61-12 bomb production project for many years due to reasons. due to budget overspending. Therefore, although there is information that the US has begun delivering B61-12 bombs in December 2022, the delivery schedule for B61-12 to Europe is still unclear.

In other words, the US side also seems to want to reduce its ability to simultaneously provide both transport vehicles (F-35A) and suitable strategic nuclear weapons (B61-12) to Europe.

Similarly, the Russian side also has the stance of avoiding strategic-level nuclear conflicts (with a destructive power of 15 to 1,000 kilotons) and only mobilizing tactical-level nuclear weapons with a lower destructive power of about 1 kiloton, is compact in size, easy to transport, and is not limited by any arms control treaty between the US and Russia.

Therefore, the Russian side's goal is currently only aimed at consolidating the "tactical nuclear belt" connected to new nuclear storage facilities on the southern border to Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, in order to create a "balance". new" with nuclear deployment steps that were "highly raised" from NATO but "softly attacked" led by the US.

This nuclear exercise also contributes to tightening all three encirclements around Ukraine that Russia is pushing with all its might. In particular, "long-range encirclement" is described very fully in the message published by the Russian Ministry of Defense, including the use of the Iskander system (range of 500km) in missile forces, while air forces The army will equip Kinzhal hypersonic missiles with "special warheads". The appearance of the Kinzhal missile with a range of more than 2,000km causes even the US Patriot air defense battery within a range of 30km to be "disabled".

The above 30km range coincides with calculations to fix the "buffer zone" that the Russian military is trying to expand in the Kharkov area right now to create a "close-range siege" about about the Russia-Ukraine border. 10-15km.

And finally, there is the "core siege" when Russia is continuously conducting activities to attack the legitimacy of Mr. V. Zelensky's government because he believes that his term of office ended on May 21 according to the Constitution. Ukraine.

Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya noted that all mediators of the peace process in Ukraine must take into account the expiration of Mr. Zelensky's mandate and the signing of any documents with Mr. Zelensky After May 20, it is also invalid.

Careful steps

Overall, this Russian nuclear exercise is a carefully calculated step to increase comprehensive pressure at the most unfavorable time for Ukraine both internally and externally.

The serious shortage of artillery shells, weapons and major air defense systems such as Patriot, along with the "raise high and low" attitude in nuclear deterrence with Russia from NATO and the weakening legitimacy of his administration Zelensky will greatly influence international public opinion before the Ukraine Peace Summit in mid-June.