Despite years of Russian Sanctions, foreign missiles continue to rain down on Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine hasn’t just been a test of resolve, it’s also become a testing ground for new strategies, weapons and domains. While the humble FPV drone was thought to have little to offer the world’s militaries, after more than two years of battle testing on the front lines, it’s become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, taking out thousands of armoured vehicles and upending conventional wisdom on the battlefield.

Some of these weapons have become near iconic, with memes and fundraising helping to fuel creativity. The High Mobility Artillery System was responsible for a large number of losses and the Javelin missile would eventually spawn into the St Javelin meme.

Today though, we’re not here to talk about Western weapons. We’re here to shine a light on something that's used to being in the shadows. Today, we’ll be talking about economic sanctions, and how they are intended to restrict Russia’s ability to extend their reign of terror by continuing their war of aggression.

It’s important to point out though, that many people think that Russian aggression occurred after their full-scale invasion in February 2022. The reality is though, that this aggression first occurred in 2014. This is relevant because at this point, in 2024 the Ukrainians have spent a decade attempting to reclaim their territory, while the Russians have spent the same amount of time in a War mindset.

The Russian unfriendly country list is long and esteemed. Source: Wikipedia

Why Sanctions?

It’s fair to say that in 2022, economic sanctions received a lot of attention. In fact, sanctions were some of the first steps that were taken to impede Russian aggression. For politicians who were and continue to be, wary of escalation, sanctions provided a palatable way to provide a demonstrable response to Russia's initial moves and were touted as “the” way to stop Russian aggression in its tracks.

A sometimes controversial measure due to their impact for many reasons, while sanctions are often mentioned as a deterrent, they are also somewhat coercive in that they are often applied with the hope of seeing a significant behavioural shift in their wake.

This can take many forms, but typically speaking we can usually see that the intentions are to induce social/military change, limit the flow of militarily useful technology or equipment or possibly even limit the flow of hard currency into or from a country.

It’s fair to say that in the context of the Russia / Ukraine conflict, limiting Putin’s ability to wage war was a key goal in applying sanctions to Russia.

Logistics is King

As the current example shows, if you intend to perpetuate a war of aggression, you’ll need a lot more than just military equipment if you’re going to achieve your goals. And one of the most important things is a well-supported and maintained logistical arm. Once you deploy thousands of vehicles and hundreds of thousands of troops into an area, the proverbial length of the logistical arm/demand increases.

While the troops of yesterday would often revert to foraging for food it’s fair to say that in modern warfare, for the most part, that's not an option. With thousands of drones over the front line and thermal optics stripping away the protective cover of night, for a modern military to succeed this logistical arm must remain as intact and efficient as possible.

If you’re wondering why we’re discussing that in an article about economics, it’s because it’s that logistical line that sanctions intend to disrupt.

Bypassing Sanctions

While often touted as being highly effective the sad truth is that we only need to look at North Korea as an example of what happens when a country is sanctioned over the long term. The fact is that despite many North Korean civilians facing struggles due to sanctions, the North Korean state was still able to develop ballistic missile programs while becoming a fully-fledged nuclear power.

While the reasons for this occurring are outside the scope of this article we can take away a few things from this situation. The first thing is that humans are adaptable and ingenious creatures. Give a human a solution and they’ll usually find a solution and when it comes to nuclear weapons and dark money programs, things are no different.

In the modern world, sanctions evasion can take many different forms. It could be dual-use technology being shipped to an unsanctioned country to be shipped onward to the sanctioned party. It could be straight military equipment changing hands in a similar fashion. Or it could be financial aid in one of its many various forms.

While the world of cryptocurrency has much to offer future generations in terms of technology and economic evolution, it’s already an established way to earn actual currency that can then be traded via global markets. Because of this, there are more than a few state-backed ransomware groups that have had quite a bit of success in turning a profit by turning their hands to cybercrime.

The hard truth is though, that the more detached from global trade a society becomes, the harder it is to apply sanctions successfully. When your main trade partners are primarily other sanctioned countries, they simply aren’t going to work as well as they would for countries that are more dependent on restriction-free global trade.

The HESA Shahed-136 has been the main sign of external support to Russia. Source: Wikipedia.

Weapons for Technology

Probably the most overt sign of external support to Russia came early in the war after the Russian military faced significant external resistance to their invasion. With their own missile supplies rapidly depleting, a deal was done and Iranian weapons started to flow into Russian hands, primarily the Shahed series of loitering munitions. These weapons were delivered en mass and were subsequently used against Ukrainian cities, targeting the power grid during the worst of the Ukrainian winter.

While the earlier Shahed (шахед) was designed and built in Iran, later versions were designed and produced in Russian facilities helping to get them out the door and to the front quicker. It’s become so vital to Russia’s war effort that it’s even been given a Russian designation. The Geranium 2 (Герань-2)

One thing that’s important to note is that sanctioned parts have been documented in some of these Russian-produced drones, providing additional proof that while sanctions might have had some impact, the flow of sanctioned parts into the country's war economy is still occurring.

It was also observed that the Shahed went through a mini evolution of sorts during this time as well, being equipped with better defences against jamming, a modified warhead and composite body materials.

While American aid has attracted plenty of controversy since 2022, the reality is that Ukraine is by no means the only country using third-party weapons to boost their own production stocks.

Final Words

Many who have observed the conflict are quick to claim that the presence of sanctioned components on the battlefield proves that sanctions don’t work. Like most things in life though things are a bit more nuanced than that. While sanctions haven’t been a silver bullet it’s an important part of the overall response and is an additional problem that requires attention from the Russian government, adding to the complexity of a dynamic and constantly changing war.

Wars end when the list of problems starts to eclipse the list of solutions.

To support Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression, visit the united24 website.

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