Supercomputer predicts Premier League relegation scrap after Nottingham Forest receive points deduct
Premier League
Supercomputer predicts Premier League relegation scrap after Nottingham Forest receive points deduction
Nottingham Forest were hit with four-point penalty after breaching Premier League's PSR rules
Nuno Espirito Santo's side have slipped into the relegation zone
Everton saw previous punishment reduced but may still face further sanctions
By Jude Summerfield
3:00 AM GMT
Forest's chances of relegation increased with their points deduction
Forest's chances of relegation increased with their points deduction / Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/GettyImages
Nottingham Forest's hopes of Premier League survival took a major hit before the March international break.
Nuno Espirito Santo's side were already embroiled in the relegation scrap but a four-point penalty handed out for breaching the division's profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) means Forest really are fighting for their lives.
Everton were also previously punished for exceeding their PSR allowance, but how does Forest's immediate sanction alter their and other clubs' chances of going down?
Premier League table after Nottingham Forest receive points deduction
Nuno Espirito Santo
Nuno has a lot of work to do / Ryan Hiscott/GettyImages
After being referred to an independent commission in January, it was confirmed on Monday that Forest would be stripped of four points for their financial mismanagement.
The East Midlands outfit were treading water in 17th place before the ruling but have since dropped to 18th, below Luton Town by a point and four behind 16th Everton, who may still be hit with another PSR punishment yet.
Forest and Luton battled it out on Saturday as Luke Berry's late equaliser cancelled out Chris Wood's earlier effort.
Position
Team
Played
Points
Goal difference
15th
Brentford
29
26
-13
16th
Everton
28
25
-10
17th
Luton
29
22
-18
18th
Nott'm Forest
29
21
-16
19th
Burnley
29
17
-34
20th
Sheffield Utd
28
14
-50
Each relegation-threatened Premier League club's chances of going down
Rob Edwards
Luton are still in trouble / Julian Finney/GettyImages
The points deduction is a big blow for Forest but undoubtedly a major positive for other sides scrapping for survival down at the bottom of the Premier League.
While Opta have seen enough from Everton to suggest dropping into the Championship is unlikely at best, Forest's punishment has resulted in Luton Town's chances of relegation dropping from 78.1% to 62.1%.
It's the Hatters' hopes which have improved the most of the teams in trouble down at the bottom, but their percentage is still almost double Forest's after the sanction came into effect. Their chances of relegation are now rated at 37.5% - just over a one-in-three probability - having sat at 13.4% before the ruling.
Team
Before Forest points deduction
After Forest points deduction
Everton
5.1%
3.3%
Luton Town
78.1%
62.1%
Nottingham Forest
13.4%
37.5%
Burnley
97.5%
94.8%
Sheffield United
99.6%
98.4%
All date provided by Opta.
The ruling has done little for the prospects of either Burnley or Sheffield United. The two league minnows are considerably cut adrift at the bottom and still nailed on for the drop at 94.8% and 98.4% respectively.
As for Forest, Nuno has to immediately use the punishment to extract extra fire and commitment from his players just like Everton did. The Toffees won four of their five matches after the ten-point penalty was first handed out in November, though they haven't tasted victory in their 11 Premier League fixtures since.
Former Wolves boss Nuno will at least be buoyed by his side's run-in during the final few months of the season.
While games against Tottenham and Manchester City will be difficult, clashes with Crystal Palace, Fulham, Everton, Sheffield United, Chelsea and Burnley are all winnable.
Nottingham Forest's remaining 2023/24 Premier League fixtures
Date
Fixture
30/03/24
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
02/04/24
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
08/04/24
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest
13/04/24
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
20/04/24
Everton vs Nottingham Forest
27/04/24
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
04/05/24
Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest
11/05/24
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
19/05/24
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
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Related Topics
Luton Town FC
Premier League
Nottingham Forest FC
Everton FC
Burnley FC
Sheffield United
Manchester City FC
Chelsea FC
Crystal Palace FC
Fulham FC
