US expert predicts Russia's next big battle in Ukraine

Russia is likely to focus resources on launching a large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine in late spring and early this summer, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts at the ISW said on April 1 that currently Russian forces can only launch large-scale attacks concentrated in one area due to limited manpower.

They also predict that Russia will likely focus its resources on launching a major offensive in eastern Ukraine's western Donetsk province in late spring or early summer in hopes of exploiting steady but small advances in the region

Ukrainian officials recently said Russia appeared to be building up forces along the Kharkiv-Lugansk axis, near the cities of Bakhmut, Avdiivka in Donetsk and western Zaporizhia Oblast in the south.

The ISW said Ukrainian forces appeared to have repelled a Russian battalion-scale mechanized attack near Avdiivka on March 30. It was the first battalion-scale mechanized attack since Russian forces launched their operation against Avdiivka last October

Meanwhile, on March 30, Russia carried out one of its largest tank strikes in more than two years. The shock took place near the village of Tonenke, west of Avdiivka, with the participation of 36 tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles.

In the weeks leading up to this offensive, Russian regiments and brigades mainly deployed infantry to attack the west of the city due to significant resource losses after months of intensive efforts to take control of Avdiivka.

Despite struggling with running out of weapons and ammunition, Ukraine's forces repelled Moscow's attack. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 12 Russian tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles with first-person drones (FPVs). ISW experts believe this is a positive signal about Kyiv's ability to defend against potential large-scale attacks by Moscow.

According to the ISW, Russia's deployment of a large-scale tank strike near Avdiivka shows that the region remains a strategic priority for Moscow. The Center for Strategic and Defense Studies said the battle for Tonenke was proof that neither side had made significant progress.

Drones have been playing an important role in Ukraine's combat and intelligence operations, especially in the context of stalled supplies of modern weapons from the West.

As a result, Russia is constantly looking for ways to respond to Ukrainian drone attacks. According to the ISW, the Russian military is using decoy tactics to neutralize as many Ukrainian drones as possible. The decoy device is planted with explosives and will activate when enemy drones approach.

Russia has also used the tactic of deploying long-range artillery systems to minimize the risk of being attacked by Ukrainian drones.