Is this the Moon?

Looking at the graph of Bitcoin against the dollar today, you can breathe the air of the beginning of 2021, when in full euphoria a new historic high was marked for the price of the asset. Just over three years ago, following the last halving, Bitcoin had broken the previous all-time high by marking a new one at a price three times higher and bringing Fomo to levels never seen before. Today the situation seems to be slightly different from then: there are the same conditions of scarcity and demand but there is a very important detail that places the ongoing bull-run in a new context. I am referring to the fact that although the price is rising sharply and at the level of historic highs, the halving has not yet occurred. Of course this seems like an obvious thing, it is in fact a fact that is clear to everyone. Putting together some other data, however, the resulting analysis leads to unexpected results. So let's see what it is and try to draw a less than obvious conclusion.

Technical analysis

Looking at the BTC/USD chart it is clear that a high has been marked again on practically every timeframe.

Tradingview

Now the 69,990 dollars represent the threshold value to be broken through and were reached on 8 March 2024. The trend is clearly growing and is accompanied by very important volumes. Furthermore, the price is very far from the EMA50 and EMA200, which are approximately $15,000 and $20,000 lower respectively. At the moment, in fact, Bitcoin is facing a very large supply zone at $70,000 and which has already rejected the price twice in recent days. Despite this, Bitcoin is demonstrating strength seen few times in the past, collecting green candlesticks one after the other. On the other hand, however, some supports were not retested due to the haste with which we achieved this extension. I am referring to the support at 52k (whose retest corresponds to an insignificant red candlestick) and the one on the psychological threshold of 60k dollars. For this reason, in the event of a correction, these supports may not be ready to support the descent. Finally, the RSI has been orbiting at values ​​higher than 80 for a few weeks, therefore in an overbought zone, indicating that the purchasing power of investors is increasingly greater.

Tradingview

The last small consideration from a technical point of view must be made by observing the graph from a monthly point of view: by zooming out the structure that appears is that of a growing macro trend which however could take the form of a triple top in the event of an imminent correction.

On-chain analysis

From the point of view of on-Chain analysis there is not much to say: Bitcoin continues to be in short supply and in about a month it will become the most scarce asset in the world. On the exchanges, reserves are in sharp decline, at historic lows compared to previous years. This is an ongoing trend since the last bull run and which is driving the trading price of BTC to ever higher levels.

It should also be considered that at the price level at which we find ourselves, 99% of those who purchased Bitcoin are in profit and despite this there is no sign of significant sales.

This seems to be a further demonstration of strength by BTC, whose price has experienced several setbacks over the years but has always recovered, demonstrating more strength than any other asset. This is especially noticeable when looking at other major currencies and their purchasing power over the last few decades. In fact, they are subject to strong inflation which erodes their strength, unlike Bitcoin.

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Conclusions

From a technical point of view you can say that everything is fine until the corrections begin. This is also obvious, but the extent to which we have reached ATH scares many investors. In the event of a retracement, in fact, the price would not have many strong supports up to $50k and, even worse, it would configure a triple-peaked structure that is very difficult to alter. Fortunately, there is a halving around the corner which has historically always proved to be a catalyst for the price, although this is not enough to be optimistic. Furthermore, given the ongoing accumulation by large entities and the consequent possibility of a supply shock scenario occurring, I would be very careful about holding large quantities of funds on centralized exchanges so as not to incur liquidity shortages on their part and consequent freezing of withdrawals.