The German government sold 49,858 BTC early four months ago, missing out on $1.6 billion in profits. But that's still a "modest" amount compared to the $16.6 billion the US government "missed".

As reported, the period from June to August witnessed a series of bad news surrounding the "dumping" of large amounts of Bitcoin by the US and German governments, making the crypto market in the third quarter of 2024 no different from a "nightmare".

The entire amount of Bitcoin sold is mostly illegal assets confiscated by law enforcement agencies of the host countries - in the US, more than 213,000 Bitcoins were seized from the crackdown on crypto-related crimes, and in Germany, 49,858 BTC from the pirated movie site Movie2k, which was accused of operating pirated websites for money laundering.

However, if the German and US governments had not rushed to "clear out" the above amount of Bitcoin but continued to "HODL" them for another 4 months until now, when the value of BTC reached a new ATH of nearly 90,000 USD per coin, the total profit that these two countries earned could have reached 18.2 billion USD.

German Government Missed Out on $1.6 Billion

According to preliminary estimates, the German government missed out on an additional $1.6 billion in profits when it sold Bitcoin four months ago at an average price of around $57,600.

The "clean liquidation" of 49,858 Bitcoins that the German government carried out throughout that time helped them earn an "unprecedented" amount of $2.88 billion, equivalent to a profit of 33%.

If they had waited patiently to "HODL" until now, the liquidation of nearly 50,000 BTC would have brought them a total of about $4.5 billion when Bitcoin set an ATH at $89,900 - thanks to Donald Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States, combined with the Fed continuing to cut interest rates as expected.

In other words, the early sale of 49,858 BTC cost the German government about $1.6 billion in profits, equivalent to a 56% profit. An extremely large profit for any organization/business or country.

The US government "lost" $16.6 billion in profits

The German government is not the only case of missing out on potential profits by liquidating Bitcoin too early. According to data from Jameson Lopp, CSO of Case, over the past 10 years, the US government has sold 195,091 Bitcoins through 11 different auctions.

The total amount raised from these auctions is $366.5 million. However, with the current Bitcoin price hovering around $89,000, this figure is worth nearly $17 billion, resulting in an opportunity cost of up to $16.6 billion.

Statistics on Bitcoin sales through US Government auctions according to data from Jameson Lopp. Photo taken on the evening of November 12, 2024.

Currently, the on-chain data search tool Arkham shows that the US Government still holds a huge amount of more than 208,109 BTC (worth $18.22 billion at the Bitcoin value at the time of writing), with the most recent Bitcoin transfer to the exchange recorded in August. In addition, they also hold many other large altcoins such as ETH, WBTC, USDT, BNB, BUSD, USDC... with a total value of more than $484 million.

With Mr. Trump's election to the White House, the 208,109 Bitcoins in the hands of the US Government will no longer be a concern for the crypto community because of the new strategies that the new US President will apply, including "preventing the country from selling its Bitcoin holdings" and "establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve".

Mr. Donald Trump emphasized that this is part of a plan to help position the US as a leading country in cryptocurrencies, ensuring that the US will be the "Crypto Capital of the World".

Notably, Mr. Trump's statement took place during the US Presidential election at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference. Here, Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis also proposed a bill requiring the US government to buy 1 million Bitcoins - currently worth about $88 billion - to create a national reserve fund. The bill also allows states to buy Bitcoin if they wish.

Ms. Lummis’s plan could partly offset the opportunity cost the US missed by selling Bitcoin too early. But after Trump’s victory, buying large amounts of Bitcoin has become much more expensive.

In addition to the US government holding large amounts of Bitcoin, there are still up to $20 billion worth of BTC in the hands of governments around the world, including the UK, China, Bhutan, and El Salvador.