This Indicator Triggered Last Two CRYPTO Bull Runs – It’s Flashing NOW...

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10 Mar 2025

The cryptocurrency market has always been a rollercoaster ride for investors, traders, and enthusiasts alike. Massive bull runs have propelled Bitcoin and altcoins to unprecedented highs, followed by painful corrections that have wiped out billions in market capitalization. Yet, amidst all the volatility and uncertainty, specific indicators have consistently provided early signals of impending bull runs. One such indicator, which has accurately predicted the last two crypto bull markets, is now flashing once again, raising speculation that another explosive rally could be on the horizon.

In this comprehensive analysis, we will delve deep into this critical indicator, exploring its past accuracy, underlying mechanics, and implications for the current crypto cycle. Whether you're a seasoned investor or a newcomer eager to understand the market's inner workings, this article will equip you with valuable insights to navigate the coming months.

Understanding the Indicator: What Is It?

The indicator in question is a combination of on-chain data, macroeconomic trends, and technical analysis signals. While no single metric guarantees future market movements, the convergence of several key indicators often provides a strong probability of trend reversals.

The primary factors behind this powerful signal include:

Bitcoin's Puell Multiple: A metric that compares the daily issuance of Bitcoin (measured in USD) to its yearly moving average. Historically, when the Puell Multiple drops to historically low levels, it indicates miner capitulation, often preceding a major price rally.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio: This indicator compares the market value of Bitcoin to the average price investors paid for their coins. When the MVRV ratio falls below 1.0, it signifies an undervalued market, often preceding bullish moves.
Hash Ribbon Indicator: The Hash Ribbon is a mining-related signal that suggests when Bitcoin miners have surrendered due to unsustainable prices. Once the "capitulation" phase ends and hash rate recovers, it often precedes massive price appreciation.
200-Week Moving Average (200WMA): This long-term moving average has acted as a critical support level for Bitcoin. In past cycles, when BTC reclaimed this level after a prolonged bear market, it marked the beginning of a sustained bull run.
Supply Shock Metrics: Data from Glassnode and other on-chain analysis firms suggest that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin while exchange reserves are dwindling. A supply shock, similar to those observed before past bull markets, appears to be underway.
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model Alignment: The Stock-to-Flow model has been a controversial yet somewhat reliable tool in predicting Bitcoin's long-term valuation based on scarcity. The model suggests that Bitcoin is approaching a phase where supply constraints will drive price appreciation.

Each of these indicators has historically played a role in signaling bull markets, but when they align simultaneously—as they are doing now—it significantly increases the likelihood of another major rally.

Historical Accuracy: How This Indicator Predicted the Last Two Bull Runs

To understand the significance of this indicator flashing now, we need to examine its past performance. Let’s take a deep dive into the last two major crypto bull runs—2017 and 2020—where these signals successfully predicted explosive price movements.

The 2017 Bull Run: Bitcoin's First Meteoric Rise

In late 2016, multiple on-chain and technical indicators pointed to an upcoming bull market.

The Puell Multiple dropped to a historically low level, suggesting miner capitulation had ended.
The MVRV ratio signaled that Bitcoin was significantly undervalued.
The Hash Ribbon flipped bullish as miner capitulation subsided, and the hash rate started recovering.
The 200WMA was reclaimed, indicating a long-term bullish trend.
Exchange reserves declined, suggesting investors were accumulating Bitcoin instead of selling.

These factors aligned just before Bitcoin embarked on its now-famous rally from under $1,000 in early 2017 to an all-time high of nearly $20,000 by December 2017. Altcoins followed suit, experiencing exponential gains, with Ethereum, XRP, and Litecoin surging to new highs.

The 2020-2021 Bull Run: Institutional FOMO and Unprecedented Growth

The next significant bull run occurred in 2020-2021, fueled by institutional adoption, macroeconomic shifts, and the COVID-19-induced financial crisis. Once again, our key indicator flashed just before Bitcoin’s ascent:

The Puell Multiple dropped significantly, signaling miner capitulation in early 2020.
MVRV ratio fell below 1.0, marking an undervalued market.
Hash Ribbon signaled the end of miner surrender, paving the way for price appreciation.
The 200WMA acted as support, with Bitcoin bouncing off this level in March 2020.
Exchange reserves plummeted, indicating a supply squeeze as institutions such as Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Square began accumulating BTC.
The Stock-to-Flow model suggested Bitcoin was poised for an upward revaluation.

Bitcoin skyrocketed from around $3,800 in March 2020 to over $64,000 in April 2021 before a mid-cycle correction occurred. By November 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of nearly $69,000, proving the reliability of these indicators.

Why Is the Indicator Flashing Now?

As of 2024, this powerful indicator is flashing again, suggesting that the next crypto bull market may be just around the corner. Several key signals have aligned, indicating that conditions are ripe for another parabolic rally:

Bitcoin's Puell Multiple has dropped to historically low levels, hinting that miner capitulation has reached its bottom.
MVRV Ratio suggests BTC is undervalued, presenting a strong buying opportunity.
The Hash Ribbon is flipping bullish, signaling the end of miner stress.
Bitcoin has reclaimed the 200WMA, reinforcing a long-term uptrend.
Supply shock indicators show that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin, with exchange reserves at multi-year lows.
The Stock-to-Flow model aligns with previous cycles, suggesting Bitcoin is entering a bullish phase.

Potential Triggers for the Next Crypto Bull Run

While historical patterns suggest a new bull run is imminent, external macroeconomic and market-specific factors will play a crucial role in determining its scale and sustainability. Some potential catalysts include:

1. Bitcoin ETF Approval

A U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF could open the floodgates for institutional investors, bringing massive liquidity into the market.

2. Halving Event (2024)

Bitcoin’s next halving, expected in April 2024, will reduce mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, further tightening supply and historically leading to price surges.

3. Institutional Adoption

More institutions integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets and investment portfolios will drive demand and price appreciation.

4. Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty

Global economic instability, inflation concerns, and central bank policies may drive investors toward Bitcoin as a store of value, similar to gold.

Conclusion: Are We on the Verge of Another Crypto Bull Run?

The alignment of these key indicators strongly suggests that the cryptocurrency market is gearing up for another bull run. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the historical accuracy of these signals cannot be ignored. With institutional adoption rising, macroeconomic conditions favoring scarce assets, and on-chain data supporting a supply squeeze, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may soon enter a phase of exponential growth.

For investors, this could represent a once-in-a-cycle opportunity to position themselves before the next wave of mainstream adoption. As always, risk management and due diligence are crucial, but the flashing of this indicator suggests that the next crypto bull run may already be underway.

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