BTC Price Outlook(11/4/2023) - 32k Retracement Confirmed?

Greetings! In this article, I will go over my technical analysis I did today and explain what indicators were notable and future potential scenarios of the BTC price action.

32k Retracement Confirmed?

During the past couple of days, Bitcoin has been stuck in between a sideways range in between 34k-35k levels. However, today, I will explain how a retracement will begin now through technical analysis and the potential future implications of this move.

4-hour time frame:

In the 4-hour time frame, the RSI is still tracing within neutral territories. The MACD is currently still very neutral (With small crosses and curves). However, the 4-hour 20 EMA is beginning to curve downwards to meet the 50 EMA. This means that within the next few days or so, it is likely that Bitcoin will be going into a downward trend. This also supports my prediction of a retracement beginning within the next day or two. However, there are more supporting evidence within the 24-hour time frame.

24-hour time frame:

In the 24-hour time frame, the RSI is beginning to curve downwards from the overbought territories. The MACD is even more bearish, with it confirming a bearish cross today. Despite this confirming a retracement, I believe that the retracement will most likely only touch the 20 EMA (32k) or in extreme cases, the 50 EMA (30k). This is due to the fact that currently, BTC ETFs have not been completely price in yet and the macroeconomic situation is looking very optimistic. Therefore, without a strong bearish catalyst to drive the Bitcoin price down, it is unlikely that it will go below the 20 or 50 EMA levels.

Weekly time frame:

In the weekly time frame, the RSI is still beginning to curve below the overbought territories. The MACD is showing some promise, however, with it still printing green bars after the bullish cross confirmation a few weeks back. Additionally, the 20 EMA is now well above the 50 EMA and it is strongly continuing upwards. This means that a stronger macro support structure is forming for an overall macro bullish trend.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, Bitcoin is likely to retrace towards the 32k levels or even the 30k regions. However, it is unlikely that it will retrace further down due to the well-placed support structure of the 20 and 50 EMA lines.

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