3 Bitcoin price forecasts calling new all-time highs and more in 2024

Bitcoin bulls are gazing at the moon with the halving set to be a classic BTC price catalyst.
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market participants see the BTC price easily hitting new all-time highs after its block subsidy halving — how high do they go?

As BTC/USD remains stuck in a rigid trading zone for more than 150 days, anticipation of the halving’s impact on price is growing.

The supply of newly-mined Bitcoin will drop 50% per block around April 18, leaving any buyers to fight it out for a dwindling asset.

Together with the projected buyer pressure from the newly-launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, the stage could be set for a supply squeeze like no other.

This is the leading theory behind a 2024 BTC price transformation that makes new all-time highs look modest.

$130,000 before the year is out
The timing for Bitcoin price discovery varies considerably among popular forecasters.

For trader Alan Tardigrade, however, the focus is on $130,000 — nearly double the current all-time highs — hitting before the end of 2024.

Uploading a chart to X on Feb. 6, he described a so-called cup and handle pattern playing out on the weekly chart.

“What if Bitcoin breaks this Cup with Handle Pattern near the date of Halving (around 2 months later)?” he suggested.

“The target for this pattern is $130k. In other words, it is the last opportunity for accumulation in these 2 months before it sends above hundred thousands.”
As Cointelegraph reported in 2023, several BTC price models converge around $130,000 as an upside destination — albeit their horizon is broader, and they expect it to come in late 2025.

$280,000 after?
Those willing to wait longer for a cycle top could be in for a wild ride.
For Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, the path leads to over a quarter of a million dollars per coin in 2025.

“If Bitcoin’s post Halving returns are the same as 2020, we are looking at $280K Bitcoin next year,” he told X followers.

Edwards touched on a common narrative involving Bitcoin’s four-year price cycles. This states that each successive cycle peak will be less extreme than the last due to Bitcoin maturing as an asset, with volatility decreasing permanently.

In his eyes, however, even the 2020 breakout — which took BTC/USD from $10,000 in September to $58,000 just seven months later — did not show Bitcoin at full power.

“You might reasonably argue this cycle’s returns are less than 2020,” the X post continued.

“However, I believe the 2020 cycle performance was mediocre and an outlier.”
In an interview with Cointelegraph in February 2023, Edwards described the upcoming halving as Bitcoin’s “most important.”

“It is worth mentioning that none of the prior halvings have ever been priced in, so I am expecting multi-hundred-percent returns to continue here as well,” he said at the time.

No time left until $64,000 run
Some of the boldest BTC price demands involve all-time highs nearing at the same time as the halving itself.

Related: BTC price sets new February high as Bitcoin buyers target faraway $25K

While some believe that Bitcoin will continue to slip from current levels into the event, popular investor Fred Krueger sees a price transformation coming much sooner than many expect.

In an X post on Feb. 4, Krueger laid out “the case for ATH within the next 30 to 60 days.”

This, as Cointelegraph reported, hinges on ETF activity, as the newly-launched U.S. spot products suck in ever more capital.

“Over the next 30 to 60 days, there are 20 to 40 trading sessions. I would bet this results in between 4 and 6 Billion new USD in inflows,” he predicted.
At a market cap of 850 Billion, it’s pretty easy to see this *could* move the market 50% or to 64K. Basically at all time high.”
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Bitcoin ETFs lead to record miner reserve BTC outflows

A report from Bitfinex suggests that miners are either selling Bitcoin holdings or leveraging coins to raise capital.
The launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has directly influenced miners’ BTC reserves, with more than $1 billion of BTC flowing from miner wallets to exchanges in the first 48 hours of trading.

According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha market report reflecting on-chain data, the second day of trading of Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 12 saw a significant increase in Bitcoin miners’ outflow to exchanges. Citing data from Glassnode, the report highlights over $1 billion of Bitcoin
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being sent to exchanges from miner-associated wallets on the same day, marking a six-year high in miner outflow.

Feb. 1 also saw another significant amount of BTC moving out of miner wallets, with 13,500 BTC being sent to exchanges. The report also notes that around 10,000 BTC was sent back to miner wallets on Feb. 2, suggesting that activity could also be attributed to specific mining companies rebalancing wallets.

Related: Bitcoin faces ‘sell the news event’ before 2024 BTC price all-time high

Bitfinex analysts suggest that a net outflow of 3,500 BTC over a single day marks the highest value of the metric observed since May 2023.
The report adds that on-chain data reflecting the flow of Bitcoin from miner wallets has been predominantly negative since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. CryptoQuant data estimates the net outflows from miners to be approximately 10,200 BTC.
The factors influencing BTC outflows from miner wallets are multifaceted. The report cites the need for operational liquidity for miners as well as varying responses to market conditions and adjustments following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. The analysts add that some miners may have also looked to capitalize on the price surge weeks before the ETFs were approved:

“This substantial transfer of BTC from miners to exchanges reflects the miners’ response to market conditions and potentially their need to liquidate holdings for operational expenses or risk management.”
While miners were observed moving Bitcoin from wallets post Bitcoin ETF approvals, on-chain data also suggests that long-term Bitcoin investors are holding assets and are reluctant to sell at current market prices.

Related: BTC price sets new February high as Bitcoin buyers target faraway $25K

Referring to the supply last active metric, the analysts highlight a decline in supply last active within the one-year and two-year time horizons. This activity has been directly associated with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, with dormant BTC holdings having been sold or swapped into other Bitcoin ETFs.
The result being that a noteworthy volume of BTC, which has been dormant for an extended period, has begun to circulate in recent weeks.”
The report notes that the movement of older Bitcoin supply is a notable indicator of market behavior, reflecting changing sentiments and strategies of investors that are responding to Bitcoin ETFs or reassessing positions in response to current market conditions.

The analysts maintain that a significant majority of the Bitcoin supply continues to be tightly held. The trend of holding among long-term investors reflects a continued belief in the future appreciation of Bitcoin.