The 4-Year Cycle Continues Its Reign

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13 Nov 2024

Definitive Proof
There has been a lot of talk regarding Bitcoin and its 4-year cycle. This dynamic might be uncommon knowledge to newcomers. However, for those who have been in this space for years, the compass directs our investment journey. It’s a lot like surfing… to ride a wave you have to be “positioned” beforehand, waiting patiently for the swell to arrive and begin building.
Similarly, the Crypto market begins gaining momentum once the bear market has played its final hand. This can be likened to identifying a potential swell in the distance. As it approaches it begins building and is either validated or rejected as a wave. Similarly, we have experienced a lot of upside for Bitcoin during 2024. However, the $70K zone has been an area of struggle.
Bitcoin experienced an extensive period of sideways chop within a fairly generous range. However, recent developments have validated what I have been saying for months. The following excerpt is from an article published in August when BTC was trading at $60K:

Zooming out, Bitcoin is still incredibly bullish and is merely in a position of consolidation. It seems longer than the previous cycle. However, it’s standard practice. An extra two to three months out of a multi-year cycle is an acceptable deviation. Essentially, it’s not a deviation, as cycles merely rhyme and no two are exactly alike. This is something investors need to consider.

I maintained this objective throughout previous months despite many so-called gurus calling for a cancellation of Uptober. This was not the case. The final week of October was incredibly bullish. Furthermore, November is off to an amazing start, firmly in line with Bitcoin’s historical behavior. As mentioned, a definitive break above $75K would ignite a speedy move to the $80K zone.
This is precisely what has transpired, and Bitcoin is holding its cyclical behavior like a boss! What, however, does remain to be seen is how far Bitcoin can rally in the long term. The previous cycle saw Bitcoin surpass its previous all-time high by 250%. If Bitcoin were to repeat this percentage move, it would imply a new all-time high of 241K. However, diminishing returns are to be expected.
However, the institutional element, which could add significant gas to the tank, is also important to consider. Another important aspect of the previous cycle was the China mining ban, which collapsed the market by 50% within a very short period. This robbed the market, as additional “gas” was required to climb back to $69K from $30K. These two important factors carry enormous weight and should be considered.

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Final Thoughts
Considering that Bitcoin has broken out as high as $89K, I expect a very bullish 6 to 12 months. As mentioned a few months ago, a Trump victory could trigger an “attack” on financial markets. All investors need to monitor for potential signs of distress. However, for the moment, things are looking good. Enjoy your week and visit my new Crypto Merch Store, even if you are just window shopping. See you next time!

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Disclaimer
First of all, I am not a financial advisor. All information provided on this website is strictly my own opinion and not financial advice. I do make use of affiliate links. Purchasing or interacting with any third-party company could result in me receiving a commission. In some instances, utilizing an affiliate link can also result in a bonus or discount.
This article was first published on Sapphire Crypto.