5 metrics suggest Bitcoin price will break new all-time highs
As Bitcoin’s upward trajectory continues, analysts and investors alike are keenly focused on a series of influential metrics pointing toward potential new all-time highs. With Bitcoin prices recently rallying above $73,000, key metrics, including robust ETF inflows, futures open interest, and technical indicators, suggest that BTC’s upward momentum could break historical thresholds. 
These metrics have been further bolstered by anticipation surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where a potential Trump victory is viewed by some market insiders as a significant bullish factor for the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin’s Price Momentum Ahead of U.S. Election
The political landscape in the United States could play a significant role in Bitcoin’s price action, with some market analysts attributing the recent Bitcoin rally to rising optimism around former President Donald Trump’s candidacy in the upcoming election.
Referred to as the “Trump trade” by some observers, Bitcoin’s surge above $73,000 aligns with Trump’s pro-crypto stance, which has resonated with cryptocurrency supporters. Trump’s continued presence at crypto events, including his appearance at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, has strengthened his appeal to crypto enthusiasts. He has also voiced a commitment to maintaining any Bitcoin held by the U.S. government, a stance that underscores his supportive view on digital assets.
Crypto entrepreneur Erik Finman, a known figure in the Bitcoin community, emphasized that “a Trump election win would turn the U.S. into a pro-crypto environment, leading to a significant influx of investment in the crypto markets.” Finman predicts that a second Trump term could drive Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark.
Currently, the betting odds favor Trump with a 67% chance of winning the election, according to data from Polymarket, which has stirred further excitement among Bitcoin investors. However, the close polling numbers suggest that the outcome remains uncertain, and as Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia, notes, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a price above $70,000 is crucial in maintaining investor confidence for a continued rally.
Bitcoin ETFs Experience Record Inflows
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has shown significant growth, with spot Bitcoin ETFs continuing to draw massive inflows. As reported by Farside Investors, a remarkable $23.3 billion has poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs since the start of 2024. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, in particular, has seen impressive inflows, with recent activity marking the highest trading day for Bitcoin ETFs in six months. Crypto data provider Ecoinometrics highlighted that October 30 alone saw nearly $870 million invested in spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating one of the strongest periods of ETF inflows since March.
For investors tracking Bitcoin’s performance, the surge in ETF inflows is an encouraging indicator. “If you are looking for a reason why Bitcoin could push higher, this is it,” Ecoinometrics analysts noted in a recent report, emphasizing the bullish implications of sustained ETF inflows for Bitcoin’s price outlook.
This increased institutional involvement through ETFs is considered a significant development, especially as Grayscale’s GBTC saw a net outflow offset by gains from other Bitcoin ETFs. The renewed inflows into Bitcoin-backed ETFs could act as a major support for BTC’s price, potentially propelling the cryptocurrency toward new highs.
Metrics Indicating Stronger Market Momentum
SOPR Metric Reflects Bullish Sentiment
Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has also drawn attention as a key metric in recent weeks. The SOPR metric, which tracks the profitability of short-term holders (STHs) in the Bitcoin market, indicates that a significant portion of STHs are holding their positions despite a surge in profit-taking opportunities. According to CryptoQuant, the SOPR is currently at a value of 1.017%, suggesting that while some investors are realizing profits, the market is not yet at a point of excessive selling pressure.
Historically, an SOPR reading above 1 denotes that STHs are generally in profit, but values close to 1.03 have previously indicated a market “overheating.” CryptoQuant analysts suggested that the metric's current position indicates potential for further upside in Bitcoin’s price. As long as the SOPR remains below the critical “overheating” level, the Bitcoin market is likely to see room for continued growth, supporting the case for an impending rally.
Record-Breaking Futures Open Interest (OI)
Another bullish indicator is the record-breaking open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures. CoinGlass reported an all-time high in Bitcoin futures OI on October 29, with OI reaching nearly 600,000 BTC, valued at approximately $41 billion. This high level of OI signals heightened investor interest, especially among institutional traders, who often use futures to express a positive outlook on an asset’s price trajectory.
Julio Moreno, a CryptoQuant analyst, commented that with sustained demand, Bitcoin’s next target could be $84,000, based on valuation bands. A surge in open interest alongside a rising BTC price suggests that new money is entering the market, which could further strengthen Bitcoin’s ongoing uptrend.
Technical Patterns Show Bullish Breakout
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s recent rally appears to have broken out from a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart, a structure often associated with bullish reversals. Market data from TradingView indicates that Bitcoin breached the neckline of this pattern at $71,700, a move that would generally be seen as confirmation of a bullish breakout.
Technical analysts highlight that if Bitcoin manages a daily close above this level, it would signal a move into price discovery, with a projected target of approximately $91,362. This breakout coincides with Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting that the cryptocurrency still has room to run before reaching overbought levels.
Key Catalysts Ahead for Bitcoin’s Price Action
As 2024 progresses, Bitcoin’s bullish outlook appears underpinned by a confluence of factors. The anticipated impact of the U.S. presidential election remains a focal point, with a potential Trump victory seen as a positive for the cryptocurrency market. The continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs add another layer of institutional support, underscoring a growing confidence in the asset among large-scale investors.
Furthermore, metrics like the SOPR and futures OI levels indicate that the market is positioned for further growth, with many short-term holders remaining in profit without succumbing to widespread selling pressure. A notable uptick in open interest for Bitcoin futures suggests a strengthening trend, bolstered by a market sentiment that anticipates further price appreciation.
As Bitcoin navigates the final months of 2024, these technical and on-chain metrics collectively build a case for a potential climb toward new all-time highs. Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with several indicators pointing toward a favorable environment for further gains in the coming months.
Reference
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